HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND— lower: CH, down $.0075; SF, up $.0050; WH, down $.0050; KWH, down $.0050
· MACRO: “Santa takes a leave of absence into the end of the week”, markets ease; light trading day expected. ASIA-lower: Nikkei, on holiday; Hang Seng, -0.28%; Shanghai, -0.94%. EUROPE—mixed but not much enthusiasm: FTSE, -0.09%; DAX, +0.07%; CAC, +0.03%. Wall STREET: Futures are mixed: the DOW, flat; S&P, +0.25; NASDAQ, -2.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.071 @103.025; Gold, +$2.10 @ $1,130.90; Feb Crude, -$0.45 @ $52.48
· T-storm Weather: Heavy thunderstorms break dryness across Argentina through Sun.-Mon.; another 1.75"-3.50" falls. Although parts of Brazil will initially be dry & turn hot through early next week, a strong cool front causes thunderstorms to erupt across much of Brazil next week, leading to at least near-normal rain for a large area next 10 days. Exception is in/near northeastern areas of Brazil where upper-level high pressure likely lingers into Jan., potentially stressing ~10% of first-crop corn & soybeans
· Corn: CH down $.0075 @ $3.4675; CK down $.01 @ $3.53. The funds sold 2 K yesterday
· SB: SF up $.0050 @ $9.95; SH, up $.0050 @ $10.0450. Funds—Sold 8 SB, 8 SBO, 0 SBM. Board Crush: $.69, -$.02; LY, $.53
· Wheat: WH down $.0050 @ $3.9650; WK down $.0075 @ $4.0925. Fund selling again totaled 2 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· March 2017 corn futures closed at $3.47 ¼ on Thursday. One year ago, March 2016 corn settled at $3.64 ½
· ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for 16/17 for the week ending Dec. 15 of 49.2 mbu were well above the trade range of 31-43, and above last year’s 31.6. Sorghum sales for 16/17 were 3.5 mbu vs. 12.9 last year
· T-storm Weather: A 5-7 day period of dry weather occurs across Argentina corn after rain this weekend. Temps will initially be cool with max. in the 70s-80s early next week, then turn hot as 90s return late next week and weekend
· Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 35.0 MMT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· January 2017 soybean futures closed at $9.94 ½ on Thursday. One year ago, January 2016 beans settled at $8.75 ¼
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for 16/17 for the week ending Dec. 15 of 66.6 mbu were well above the trade range of 40-51, but below last year’s 76.0 total
· Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is unchanged this week at 56.0 MMT
· ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales of 10.9 mbu were below trade range of 11-18 and below last year’s total of 13.6
· T-storm Weather: Stormy period continues to diminish agricultural drought across U.S. SRW wheat over next 10 days
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG17, -$0.45 @ $52.48; EBG, -$0.45; EBG-CLG, $2.10, $0.00; RBG, -$.0181;NGG, +$.014; HOG, -$.0075
· A mixed trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago increased 4; New York added 1; Gulf climbed 3; Dallas up ½; Tampa down ½; and LA was unchanged at $1.82 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were significantly weaker: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s all fell 5 ¾ to 85-90
· The carry in the Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread tugged in yesterday, off $.0425 to +$0.01400/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY      
· Choice boxed beef values were 36-cents higher on Thursday at $197.61, and are up $4.15 vs. last week
· Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Dec 1 on feed, 98.5%; Nov placements, 112.5%; Marketed in Nov 116.4%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass firmed 59-cents Thu. to $79.91, is up $2.44 vs. last week & is the highest since Sep. 20
· CME Lean Hog Index was steady on Thu. at $58.18. February futures fell $0.175 but are still $6.545 above the index
· Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today: Avg. trade est, all hogs and pigs, 101.8%; breeding, 100.3%, market, 102.0%
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather