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MARKET TREND lighter-than-expected weekend rains CN Up 4,SN Up 17, WN Up 3

June 27, 2016 07:30 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—lighter-than-expected weekend rains:  CN:  Up $.0425; SN: Up $.1725; WN: Up $.0150; KWN: Up $.0275

·        MACRO: Global equity markets are mixed, expecting further Brexit-related aftershocks.  ASIA: The Nikkei closed up 2.4%; Shanghai rose 1.4% wh ile the Hang Seng eased .16%.  EUROPE:  Lower at mid-day.  FTSE, down 1.3%; CAC, 1.4% weaker; DAX, off 1.6%.  WALL STREET: Pre-markets are looking south, again with DOW futures 108 lower; the S&P is 13 lower and the NAS points to a 34 point weaker start.  OUTSIDE  MARKETS: Frida’s trend continues . . . Gold is  up $10.70 @ $1,330.40; the $ Index is .846 higher at 96.42 and August crude is off $.32 @ $47.32

·        T-storm Weather: Coverage of weekend rain for U.S. corn and soybeans was lower than expected.  Coolness begins today wand lasts one week with below-normal maximums in the 70s-80s coinciding with minimums in the 50s-60s.  A few showers and thunderstorms (scattered 0.20”-0.50” amounts) affect the Corn Belt when a reinforcing cool front passes Thursday-Friday, but significant rain generally focuses on/near the central Plains; 1.25”-2.50” occurs from western Nebraska through Kansas

·        CN, Up $.0425 @ $3.8875; CZ, Up$.04 @ $3.9825.  The funds sold 20 K on Friday        

·        SN, Up $.1725 @ $11.2025; SX, Up $.15 @ $10.9350.   Fund activity: Sold 20 K SB; 12 K SBM; and 8 K SBO

·        WN, Up $.0150 @ $4.5625; WU, Up $.0175 @ $4.6675.  The funds ended the week selling 3 K

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CORN/SORGHUM                          &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;        

·        December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.94 ¼ Fri.—12% lower than previous Fri. & lowest settlement since May 11

·        USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent corn rating could be unchanged to down 1% v. last week’s 75% & last year’s 68%

·        June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. corn acreage at 92.8 mil (93.6 in March); June 1 corn stocks est. 4.520 bbu

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 54.8 mbu needed; 48.6 last week.  Milo—4.0 needed; 0.5 last week

·        Consultant: With the safrinha (double crop) corn harvest progressing in Brazil, the domestic supply of corn is starting to increase and domestic prices are starting to fall sharply

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent soybean rating could be unch to down 1% v. last week’s 73% & last year’s 63%

·        June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. soybean acre at 83.9 mil (82.2 in March); June 1 bean stocks est. 0.831 bbu

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 14.4 mbu needed; 11.6 last week

·        USDA Crop Progress: U.S. winter wheat harvest est. at 40-45% vs. approx. 33% last year and 41% for the 5-year avg.

·        June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. wheat acres at 49.7 mil (49.6 in March); June 1 wheat stocks est. 0.983 bbu

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 17.1 mbu needed; 21.0 last week

ENERGY

·        Mostly lower: CLQ16, -$0.32, $47.32; EBQ, -$0.10; EBQ-CLQ, $0.91,+$.14; RBN, -$.0080;  NGN, +0.003; HON, -$.003

·        Cash ethanol markets were noticeably higher at some locations on Friday: Chicago up ¾; New York gained 2 ½; Gulf firmed 2 ¼; Dallas climbed 5 ¼; Tampa jumped 6 ½; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $1.76 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs eased: 2014’s down ¼ at 85 ¾-86 ¼; 2015’s off ¼ at 85 ¾-86 ¼; and 2016’s declined ¼ to 85 ½-86

·        The July RBOB/July ethanol spread went back to premium, ethanol on Friday, -$.07/gallon trading -$.0660 this am                              &n​bsp; 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;     

·       &n​bsp;Choice boxed beef values were $1.60 lower on Friday, are down $7.97 vs. last week and the lowest since May 11

·        Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 102.2% (102.1% avg est); May place, 109.6% (110.1%); Marketed, 104.9% (105.0%)

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value up 60-cents on Friday to $88.73, and is the highest since Oct. 21, 2015

·        CME Lean Hog Index up $0.40 on Fri. to $84.41.  July futures were down $0.225 and are now $0.36 below the index

·        Hogs and Pigs: All hogs & pigs, 101.8% (100.7% avg. est); breeding, 100.9% (100.4%); market, 101.9% (100.7%)

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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