MARKET TREND Higher CZ up 1, SF up 5,WZ up 3

HIGHLIGHT

·       MARKET TREND—Higher: CZ: up $.0125; SF: up $.025; WZ: up $.0225; KWZ: up $.0275. 

·       MACRO.  Stocks are mixed on the heels of Thursday’s gains with some support linked to progress on President Donald Trump’s tax plan.  ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.20%; Shanghai, -0.48%; Hang Seng, +0.62%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.14%; FTSE, +0.16%;CAC, +0.16%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mixed—DOW, -18 S&P, -2.00; NAS, +4.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.214 @ 93.640; Gold: +$5.20 @ $1,283; Dec crude: +$1.02 @ $56.16/bl. 

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., the same story continues as temperatures fluctuate within a wide range over the next two weeks, leaving cattle and HRW wheat in the Plains near normal.  Dry weather also continues in cattle and HRW wheat areas, while some rain occurs in the eastern Corn Belt (namely today and Saturday when the last in a series of system exits).  Generalized rain totals of 0.50” to 1.00” are forecast.  A notably drier period follows for the eastern Corn Belt over the next 10 to 14 days

·       CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.3775; CH, up $.0075 @ $3.4975.  Funds sold 2 K on Thursday  

·       SF, up $.025 @ $9.745; SH, up $.0225 @ $9.855.  Funds: Sold 2 K SB, 1 SBM and 1 SBO 

·       WZ, up $.0225 @ $4.2375; WH, up $.0175 @ $4.3975.  The funds were even on Thursday    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Contract lows were recorded on Thursday for December 2017 through September 2018 corn futures

·       Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. corn as of Nov. 9 were 559 mbu—down 18% from 681 mbu at this time last year

·       ATI Research: South American corn supplies on Dec. 1 are estimated at 53.0 MMT—up 68% compared to last year

·       T-storm Weather: Multiple heavy thunderstorms affect all corn areas of Brazil over next 10-14 days, maintaining or increasing soil moisture from 2.25"-4.50" totals.  Main point is dryness is unlikely to be a problem in early December

·       Consultant: Cordoba & Santa Fe are major corn areas of Argentina; parts of those two provinces are in a drier pattern

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean exports during December-May are estimated to be 65 mbu greater than last year

·       Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Nov. 9 were 574 mbu, which is down 20% vs. 2016

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, topsoil drying continues over next 7-10 days, allowing soybean planting to advance

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is unchanged at 55.0 MMT

·       T-storm Weather: Periods of rain slow wheat harvesting across eastern areas of Australia into the weekend, while the state of Western Australia stays drier

·       Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Nov. 9 were 208 mbu, which is down 2% vs. 2016

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLZ17, +$1.02 @ $56.16; EBF, +$0.73 @ $62.09; EBF-QCLF, -$0.28; RBZ,+.0176; NGZ, +.044; HOZ, +.0246

·       A mixed trend persisted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago is quoted at $1.37625, up $0.00125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 3/8; Gulf, +7 ½; Dallas, +5; Tampa, +20 3/8; and LA, +14 3/8

·       Ethanol RINs weaker Thu.: 2016’s down 1 ½ to 84 ½-86 ½; 2017’s off 1 ½ to 86-88; & 2018’s fell 1 ½ to 85 ½-87 ½

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading at +$.34130/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           ​                         ​ 

·       Choice boxed beef values firmed 11-cents on Thursday to $210.24, but are still $2.50 lower compared to last week

·       Pre-report estimates for today’s Cattle on Feed: Nov. 1 On-Feed 105.7%; Oct. Placed 107.6%; Oct. Marketed 105.4%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 18-cents on Thu. to $79.76, but is still down $1.06 vs. a week ago  

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.40 on Thu. to $65.97.  December futures declined $1.025 and are $5.87 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com

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