HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Higher: CU: up $.0625; SQ: up $.05; WU: up $.0175; KWU: up $.01 

·       MACRO:  Some Asian markets make new highs, possible extended rally seen in some circles for Far East markets.   ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +0.10%; Shanghai, +1.42%; Hang Seng, +0.56%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.05%; FTSE,+0.14%; CAC, +0.17%.   WALL STREET—Futures are mixed—DOW, -6; S&P, +1.50 NAS, +15.75.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index:+.118 @ 94.520; Aug Gold: -$2.40 @ $1,241;  Sep crude:+$.14 @ $46.72/bl. 

·       T-storm Weather: Thunder-storms expected central and north through Saturday and these will develop further to the south early next week. Most computer models show heavy rain in far northern corn and soybean areas, but not elsewhere. It is much more typical for heavy t-storms to initially form north, then shift south with ½ to 1 ½” most areas & with 1 ½ to 3” possible north.

·        CU, up $.0625 @ $3.8325; CZ, up $.06 @ $3.9675.  The funds purchased an estimated 4 K on Tuesday

·       SQ, Up $.05 @ $9.9450; SX, up $.0475 @ $10.0650.   Funds: bought 3 K SB, 2 SBM,  2 SBO. Board Crush: $.87,+1; LY, $.85

·       WU, up $.0175 @ $5.0550; WZ, Up $.0225 @ $5.29.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday          

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export forecast at 35-40 /week, on Brazil concerns.  Model is in the 42-48 mbu per week range; USDA forecasts says we need only do 32 per week

·       Ethanol margins slipped 3 cents on slightly higher corn costs and an easing of Chicago Platts ethanol prices

·       Silking stage for MN and the Dakotas well behind normal as crop heads into summer heat period

·       Several parts of the western Corn Belt may continue to see a continuation of net drying

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Near-term weekly U.S. soybean exports estimated 13-17 mbu (USDA: 14.6/wk BOY forecast)

·       Export meal demand weak—sales of 43 K MT/week the past month are at a 6-year seasonal low

·       Enough beans globally? World protein demand expected to grow 4.6%/668 mbu in the coming year; that’s about 100 mbu MORE soybeans than Iowa grew in 2016/17.  U.S. still to be “made”; South America acres/development this fall?

·       ATI Research:  expect continued volatility in wheat futures; critical Australia/Argentine growing season still to come

·       ATI Research:  Crush still too high?  June NOPA #’s suggest July-Aug U.S. bean crush need to be 17 mbu higher than the summer of 2016 to hit the USDA’s target of 1.9 bbu

·       There are no major changes to the 2 week outlook for HRW areas with net drying continuing

ENERGY

·       Up: CLU17, +$0.14 @ $46.72; EBU, +$0.25 @ $49.09;EBU-QCLU, +.11; RBU, +.0158; NGU, +.007; HOU, +.0096

·       Cash ethanol markets firmed slightly: LA was $.02 higher at $1.81; Chicago moved up 1 ¾ to $1.53 ¾; the Gulf and Dallas each gained a 1 ½ while NY and Tampa were a ½ cent higher at $1.61 ½ and $1.76

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.0 (+1.6); Gasoline, -0.5 (-5.4); Distillates, -0.7 (-2.9)

·       Ethanol RINs again moved higher; both 2016’s and 2017’s were up $.02 to $.80 5/8’s

·       The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol spread added $.0086 and now stands at +$.0450/gallon, premium ETOH 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               ​      

·       Choice boxed beef values fell $1.00 on Tuesday to $208.05 and are $7.19 lower compared to a week ago 

·       Since June 12, choice boxed beef values have declined $44.47 (18%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 43-centson Tuesday to $103.95, but is down 88-cents vs. last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.04 on Tue. to $92.46.  August futures fell $0.275 and are $11.96 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather