HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Higher: CU: up $.0175; SU: up $.08; WU: up $.0425; KWU: up $.0450
· MACRO: Disappointing German and Chinese trade data stifles rally . ASIA—Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.30%; Shanghai,+0.11%; Hang Seng, +0.59%. EUROPE: Mostly lower: DAX,+0.06; FTSE, -0.07%; CAC, -0.01%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower—DOW, -1; S&P, -1.25; NAS, -0.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.094 @ 93.21; Sep Gold: +$3.00 @ $1,263; Oct crude: +$.22 @ $49.79/bl. Dely: SBM, 176; SBO, 70; SB, 256
· T-storm Weather: Unseasonable coolness continues over the next 7-10 days, then breaks as a seasonable warming unfolds from west to east. Areas of rain and thunderstorms form along the southern periphery of coolness through the period, producing heavy rainfall for the southern ~20% of corn and soybeans. Some showers and thunderstorms occur to the north, primarily Wed.-Thu. in the Corn Belt when an upper-level wave passes and produces widely-scattered to scattered 0.25" to 0.75" amounts
· CU, up $.0175 @ $3.74; CZ, up $.0150 @ $3.8825. The funds bought 6 K to begin the trading week
· SU, up $.08 @ $9.72; SX, up $.0825 @ $9.78. Funds: Bought 5 K SB, 5 SBM, sold 2 SBO. Board Crush: $.87, -3; LY, $.79
· WU, up $.0425 @ $4.6775; WZ, up $.0450 @ $4.9525. Fund buying was estimated at 4 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
·   Aug. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. corn crop: 13.807 bbu (range 13.529-14.070) and 14.255 in July
· Aug. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--16/17, 2.363 bbu (2.370 in July); 17/18, 1.940 (2.325)
· U.S. corn crop is rated 60% Good/Excellent versus 61% last week and 74% last year. Silking is 93% compared to 96% last year and the 5-year avg. of 94%. Dough is 42% vs. 50% last year and the 5-year average of 44%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 163.4 bpa versus June USDA projection of 170.7
· T-storm Weather: A warmer pattern assembles & helps some thunderstorms form for U.S. corn Aug. 16-17 forward
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Aug. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. soybean crop: 4.203 bbu (range 4.122-4.346) and 4.260 in July
· Aug. 10 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--16/17, 0.399 bbu (0.410 in July); 17/18, 0.433 (0.460)
· U.S. soybean crop is rated 60% Good/Excellent versus 59% last week and 72% last year. Blooming is pegged at 90%, equal to last year but above the 5-year avg. of 88%. Setting pods: 65% vs. 67% last year and the avg. of 62%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. soybean crop is 46.2 bpa vs. June USDA projection of 48.0
· Aug. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. all wheat crop: 1.717 bbu (range: 1.628-1.784) & 1.760 in July
· Aug. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--17/18, 0.901 bbu (range: 0.806-0.948)
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLV17, +$0.22 @ $49.79; EBV, +$0.20 @ $52.57;EBV-QCLV, -.04; RBU, -.0003; NGU, +.008; HOU, +.0046
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Monday: Chicago and Gulf firmed 2 ¼; New York and Tampa added 1 ¼; Dallas climbed ½; but LA was 2 ½ lower at $1.74 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were steady on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s were unchanged at 87-89
· The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread narrowed further, giving up $.0354 on Monday to +$.03490/gallon, premium ETOH
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values eased 89-cents on Mon. to $202.72, are down $3.03 v. last week & the lowest sinceFeb. 27
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.14 v. last week at $117.30/cwt, but is $1.62 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.66on Monday to $97.00, but is still $2.09 lower v. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $36.24/cwt vs. last week’s $34.90, last month’s $38.07 & last year’s $28.99
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather