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MARKET TREND Higher CN, 1, CK, 2, SN, 2, SK, 1, WN, unch

May 9, 2016 07:28 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND-Higher: CN, +3/4; CK, +2 ½; SN, +2 ½; SK, + ¼; WN, unch; WK, +1 ½; KWN, - ¼; KWK, NA

·        MACROFriday’s weak U.S. job report fostered ideas that a rate hike is not in the offing, lifting overseas markets.  ASIA: April Chinese exports slipped 1.8%/imports fell 11%, under-scoring weak global/domestic demand.  Shanghai fell 2.8%; Nikkei, +.7%; Hang Seng, +.23%.  EUROPE:  Firmer: DAX, +1.98%; FTSE, +.57% & the CAC 40, +1.42%.  U.S. PRE-MARKETS:  Positive.  DOW futures, +46; S&P, +5; NAS, +12.50.  EXTERNALS:  Gold, -$17.90; $ Index, +127  @ 94.1 & June WTI is $0.98 lower @ $45.53

·        T-storm Weather: Widespread rain and t-storms will bring a halt to the majority of U.S. planting through Tuesday.  Rains end Wed.-Thu. as a period of unseasonable coolness with drying develops central and north.  The dry pattern will end early the following week as a sharp north-south temperature gradient develops, helping t-storms to unfold in varying areas at varying times.  Drought further worsens for a majority of corn in Brazil as the hot, dry pattern persists into at least late month for the northern half of corn area.

·        CN, Up $.0075 @ $3.7825; CK, Up $.0250 @ $3.7850.  The funds bought 5 KFriday.   Deliveries, 50 Corn; 0 ETOH 

·        SN, Up $.0250 @ $10.3725; SK, Up $.0025 @ $10.2650.  Funds: Bot 10 K SB; 7 K SBM; 6 K SBO.  Dely: SBO-636; SB-0

·        WN, unch @ $4.6375; WK, Up $.0150 @ $4.5475.  Funds were even in Fridaytrade. Dely: 63 HRW; 112 SRW     

CORN/SORGHUM                     ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;             

·  &n​bsp;     Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 41.0 needed; 45.6 last week.  Milo—2.9 needed; 6.1 last week

·        USDA Crop Progress report (release at 3:00 PM CDT) could show U.S. corn planting as of May 8 at 65-68% vs. approx. 69% last year and the 5-year average of approx. 50%

·        May 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 U.S. corn carryout is 1.834 bbu; avg. guess for 16/17 is 2.256 bbu

·        May 10 USDA Crop Production: Avg. guess for 2016 U.S. corn production is 14.181 bbu (range 13.590-14.431)

·        Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 3,562 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 7.9 needed; 5.5 last week

·        Crop Progress: U.S. soybean planting as of May 8 at 12-17% v. approx. 26% last year & 5-year avg. of approx. 16%

·        May 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 U.S. soybean carryout is 426 mbu; avg. guess for 16/17 is 412 mbu

·        May 10 USDA Crop Production: Avg. guess for 2016 U.S. soybean production is 3.794 bbu (range 3.703-3.930)

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 24.7 needed; 13.1 last week

·        May 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 U.S. all wheat carryout is 984 mbu; avg. guess for 16/17 is 1013 mbu

·        May 10 USDA Crop Production: Avg. guess 2016 U.S. winter wheat, 1.372 bbu; HRW, 0.810, SRW, 0.360, White, 0.202

ENERGY

·        Firmer: CLM16, +$0.98, $45.53; EBN, +$0.86; EBN-CLM, +$0.65, -$0.07; RBM, +$.0071; NGM, -0.007; HOM, +$.0096

·        Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Friday: Chicago up ¾; New York gained 2 1/8; Gulf added 1 ¼; Tampa and Dallas increased 1; and LA was 1 higher at $1.69 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs steady to down: 2014’s off 3/8 to 74-75; 2015’s unch at 74 ¼-74 ¾; and 2016’s unch at 74-74 ½

·        The June RBOB/June Ethanol inverse increased nearly 1 ¼ cents on Friday to -$.015860/gallon on Friday                           

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·        Choice boxed beef values declined 68-cents on Friday, and at $203.74 are down $7.71 vs. last week 

·        U.S. cattle slaughter for week end May 7 up 4.2% v. 2015 but beef production up 4.7% due to heavier weights

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.47 lower on Friday at $81.02 and is down 57-cents vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.74 on Fri. to $74.33.  May futures declined $0.775 but are still $2.47 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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