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MARKET TREND Firmer CU Up 3, SU Up 3, WU Up 5

September 1, 2016 07:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Firmer--CU: Up $.0375; SU: Up $.0350; WU: Up $.0525; KWU: Up $.0550

·        MACRO:  Global equity markets—mixed, to higher.   ASIA:  Mixed—oil weaker, China PMI fails to impress: Nikkei, +.23%; Hang Seng, +.81%; Shanghai, -.73%.   EUROPE:  Likes China PMI--CAC, +1.09%; DAX, +.58%; FTSE, +.07%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher—DOW, +42; S&P, +4.50; NAS, 15.5.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index, +.008 @ 96.020; Gold is $2.20 lower @ $1,305.70; Oct Crude is down $.06 @ $44.64/barrel.  Del’y: Corn--440; SRW--209; HRW—813; SBO--760; SBM--0; SB--0

·        T-Storm Weather: U.S. Corn Belt will see much cooler temps for 2-3 days.  Temps will be particularly cool today-Fri. when maximums only reach 60s-70s.  Most corn & soybeans will be dry through at least Sat.  A marked change in pattern begins Sat.-Sun & continues for at least five days with most corn & soybeans experiencing unseasonably mild temps with maximums in the 80s-90s & minimums in the 60s.  Heavy rain of 1.00”-3.00” is probable across the northwest half of corn and beans next week

·        Corn: Up $.0375 @ $3.0525; CZ Up $.0325 @ $3.1875.  Fund selling an mid-week amounted to 5 K

·        SB:  SU Up $.0350 @ $9.6350; SX Up $.0475 @ $9.4775.  Funds: sold 8 SB; 5 SBM; and 5 SBO.  Sep crush, -$.01, $.84; LY: $1.16

·        Wheat:  WU Up $.0525 @ $3.6625; WX Up $.0575 @ $3.94.  The funds were said to have sold 4 K on Wednesday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects -4 to +6 mbu for 15/16 corn; 28-43 for 16/17

·        T-storm Weather: While northwest half of Corn Belt sees heavy rain next week, sharply drier weather initially occurs to the south & east; at least a few thunderstorms are probable as next week progresses across more of the Corn Belt

·        ATI Research: 5-year avg. shows additional 9% U.S. corn moves to mature fromAug. 28-Sep. 4; would put 2016 at 20% 

·        Consultant: Shortage of corn in Brazil will force livestock industry in southern and southeastern areas to import corn

·        Ethanol grind: 1,023,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 26—down 0.5% vs. last week but 7.9% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects -6 to +7 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; 40-59 for 16/17; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for old- crop and 50-250 new-crop; soyoil, 0-25 K MT for old crop and 0-25 for new-crop 

·        T-storm Weather: Beyond late next week (Sep. 10-13), it is most probable for a stormy pattern to continue as the central U.S. is divided by coolness and warmth; best rain chances in central and northern areas

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: Winter wheat belt across Argentina has been dry in August, but major concerns are not present as climate turns wetter each week through Oct., and water-sensitive heading phases do not usually begin for 4-5 weeks

ENERGY

·        Weaker:  CLV16, -$0.06, $44.64; EBX,-$0.14; EBX-CLV, $2.12, -$.08; RBV, -.0117;  NGV, -.021; HOV, -$.0051

·        Additional declines were noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago down 1 7/8; New York and Tampa eased 1; Gulf declined 2; Dallas slid 1 ½; and LA was a penny lower at $1.56 ¾ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s off ¼ at 87 ¾-90 ¼; 2015’s eased ¼ to 87 ¾-90 ¼; and 2016’s declined ¼ to 87 ½-90

·        The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread moved to an inverse, losing $.0959 and settling at -.08160/gallon yesterday 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &n​bsp;                  

​ ·        Choice boxed beef values declined 13-cents on Wednesday to $196.49, and are $3.83 lower compared to last week

·        Over the past four trading days, choice boxed beef has declined $3.87 and is at the lowest level of calendar year 2016

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 6-cents on Wednesday to $76.61, & is $1.45 higher vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.31 lower on Wed. at $66.03.  October futures up $0.80 but are $3.18 below the index

: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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