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Market Trend Corn, Up 2 to 3, Soybeans, Up 3, Wheat, Up 6 to 7

February 6, 2015 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, Up 2-3; Soybeans, Up 3; Wheat, Up 6-7

·         “Muted”, “jittery” are this morning’s adjectives in describing global markets, as they await January U.S. jobs data.  Econ-types look for 230 K, down from 252 in Dec.  #’s said not to be a game changer but will be a factor in the Fed’s interest rate policy decision.  The Nikkei finished up .82%; Shanghai fell 1.9%; the Hang Seng, .35% lower.  Mid-day activity in Europe is clearly to the down-side:  the FTSE and CAC 40 are both off .35-.45% and the DAX is .77% lower.  U.S. futures are leaning higher:  DOW, +15; S&P, +1.50 and the NAS, +3.3.  Oil is definitely firmer, up $1.65-$1.70/bbl;  gold is $1.90  higher at $1,264 and the $ Index, 1/10 point higher, 93.8

·         T-storm Weather: The remnant of a cool front triggers thunderstorms across driest areas of Center-West, Northeast, and Southeast Brazil through Monday-Tuesday; 2.00" to 4.00" of rain results.  Thereafter, upper-level high pressure re-emerges to suppress rainfall and possibly induce above-average warmth.  Cool fronts sweep into the edge of the high from Monday-Tuesday forward, causing heavy thunderstorm clusters to erupt.  Highest coverage and amounts are most likely in wettest areas from northern / eastern Argentina through Rio Grande do Sul in South Brazil beginning Monday-Wednesday

·         Mar Corn Up $.0225 at $3.8750; May Corn Up $.0175 at $3.95.  The funds bought 2 K on Thursday

·         Mar SB Up $.03 at $9.8425; May Up $.03 at $9.9075.  Funds buy 5 K SB; sell 1 K SBM and buy 10 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.07 at $5.3275; May Up $.0675 at $5.34.  The funds bought 9 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;             

·   ​;      T-storm Weather: An end result of widespread rain across Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil through Monday-Tuesday will be slowed second-crop corn planting.  Drying later next week to improve planting conditions

·         Census pegs December U.S. corn exports at 116.7 mbu vs. 103.4 in November and 143.1 in December of 2013

·         Outstanding U.S. corn export sales as of Jan. 29: 657 mbu vs. 694 mil last year

·         Outstanding U.S. sorghum export sales as of Jan. 29: 146 mbu vs. 87 mil last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread rain across Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil throughMonday-Tuesday could potentially benefit immature soybean crops at the expense of slowed soybean harvesting 

·         Outstanding U.S. soybean export sales as of Jan. 29: 388 mbu vs. 454 mil last year

·         Census pegs December U.S. soybean exports at 301.5 mbu vs. 411.9 in November and 259.3 in December of 2013

·         Outstanding U.S. wheat export sales as of Jan. 29: 195 mbu vs. 193 mil last year

·         Census pegs December U.S. wheat exports at 59.9 mbu vs. 47.1 in November and 75.1 in December of 2013

·         T-storm Weather: Less than 25% of U.S. HRW wheat is included in agricultural drought after recent heavy rain/snow

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher:  QCLH15, +$1.80 at $52.28; QRBH, +0.0452;  QNGH, +$.014; and QHOH, +$.0465

·         Cash ethanol markets showed a mixed trend on Thursday: Chicago eased ¼; New York off 1 ¾; Gulf declined 1 ¼; Tampa added 1; Dallas up ½; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $1.59 per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2013’s gained ½ to 69-71; 2014’s added ¼ to 69 ½-73; and 2015’s up 1 ½ to 70-72 ½

·         Rising ETOH stocks added $.0361 to the Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread, now at $.0778/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;          

​ ·         Choice boxed beef values lost $1.57 on Thursday and are down $3.41 compared to last week  

·         March feeder cattle futures closed at $195.65 on Thursday, the lowest settlement price since June 6, 2014

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value declined 94-cents on Thursday and is $4.54 lower vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index down 56-cents to $68.88.  February futures $1.825 lower to $63.275 and $5.605 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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