HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 2+; Soybeans, Up 6-7; Wheat, Up 4-5
· EU: anemic growth, high unemployment, deflation—many expect the ECB to buy bonds on the order of at least $580 billion per year to stimulate the economy. Yet, Europe is mixed this morning with the CAC and DAX off .14% to .21%; the FTSE, up .33%. Asia closes higher with gains ranging from .28% (Nikkei) to .70% (Hang Seng). U.S. futures suggest a positive start to the day: DOW, +35; NAS, +3 ½ and the S&P500, +4. Energy futures are mostly higher with crude up 70 cents; gold is $7.90 weaker at $1,285.80 and the dollar index is off a ¼ point, down to 92.855
· T-storm Weather: A cool front will move out the upper-level high across NE/ SE Brazil the next few days, leading to a more unstable pattern across Center-West and Southeast Brazil. Near- to above-average rainfall will occur across much of Brazil. The lack of rain in much of Argentina/S Brazil will cause some drying but t-storms are probable across the region Wednesday-Friday of next week. Snow has begun to develop in the SW U.S. Plains with as much as 5-10” expected for some areas and will provide benefit to some HRW areas. Beyond that, cattle/ HRW wheat areas will enjoy unseasonable mildness the next 10 days to 2 weeks
· Mar Corn Up $.0225 at $3.9025; May Corn Up $.0250 at $3.9825. The funds sold 5 K on Wednesday
· Mar SB Up $.0650 at $9.90; May Up $.0675 at $9.9625. Funds bought 1 K SB; bot 3 K SBM; sold 4 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up 4.0475 at $5.4150; May Up $.0425 at $5.4425. The Funds were even in yesterday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM   ; ;
· ; Bright spot in U.S. corn exports: shipments to W Hemi markets other than Mexico up 83% to 190 mbu; near-term outlook appears bright with unshipped sales to these same destinations 60% greater, close to 100 mbu
· USDA reports 1st quarter corn ground for fuel alcohol rose 7.6%/93 mbu; only 41 mbu increase expected for the year
· Milo balance to tighten further? YTD sales 92% of USDA export forecast; “average” is only 53%
· Weekly ethanol output expected to decline from 978 K bpd figure of last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· 25% cash meal decline meal since Dec 1 with sb costs unchanged have cut crush margins 75%, still “good” @ $2/bu
· NOPA crush suggests OND domestic SBM use up 4% yr to yr; history would say USDA crush estimate 20 mbu too low
· ATI Research: weekly wheat exports estimated at 13-18 per week over the next month; HRW and HRS at 4-6 @
· Large grain cooperative in Brazil state of Goias indicating lack of rain the past month will cause significant yield loss
· Expect weekly soybean exports the next month at 55-60; versus 58/week in 13/14
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLH15, +$0.70 at $48.49; QRBH, +$0.0197; QNGH, -$.018; andQHOH, +$.0311
· Cash ethanol markets were variable: NY and Chicago posted gains of 4 and 4 ¼ cents ($1.36 ¼ for the latter); the Gulf moved up 3 ¼ cents per gallon and LA was a ½ cent higher at $1`.54. Dallas and Tampa each shed 1 ½ cents
· EIA estimates (API): crude stocks, +2.7 mb (+5.7); gasoline, +0.8 mb (+2.1); distillates +0.3 mb (-1.8)
· RINs had a positive bias: 2013’s rose ½ to 61-65; 2014’s were 2 ½ higher at 65 ½-67; 2015’s also up 2 ½, 64 ½ -66 ½
· The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread settled at a $.0438 inverse yesterday, weaker by $.1059 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values lost $1.05 on Wednesday and are at their lowest value since January 9
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.02 on Wednesday, but is $2.58 higher vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index 30-cents lower at $74.55. February futures up $0.575 to $72.35, but $2.20 below the index
· Broiler egg sets last week were up 2.8% from last year and chick placements were 2.3% larger than a year ago
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather