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Market Trend Corn, Down 3 to 4, Soybeans, 7 Lower, Wheat, 3 to 4 Lower.

October 27, 2014 07:30 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, Down 3-4; Soybeans, 7 Lower; Wheat, 3-4 Lower.     Europe:  Wheat, - 4 ¼; Corn,-6 ½                

·     &​nbsp;   Europe is lower after the ECB says 10% of the region’s 130 largest banks failed a historic stress test but much of the report verbage seemed constructive.  The DAX, FTSE and CAC 40 are all off around  ¼% after German business confidence fell for the 6th straight month.  Asia was mixed:  the Nikkei and Kospi finished .63% and .33% higher; Shanghai and the Hang Seng were both weaker by a ½%.  Pre-market indications suggest a lower opening in the U.S.:  the DOW, off 18; S&P500, -3.50 and the NAS, -4.0. Outside markets have energy futures mostly lower; the $ Index is off ¼ point at 85.74 and gold is $1.20 weaker at $1,230.10

·         Weather: Harvest conditions appear favorable today across much of the U.S. Corn Belt, but changes in both precipitation and temperature look to be in store after that.  A few showers could develop today across the northwest and north while temperatures are forecast to be above- to much-above normal across the Midwest.  Light to moderate rainfall is forecast to develop from west to central areas on Tuesday, which could lead to some delays in harvest.  A significant decline in temperatures is likely to be seen following passage of the cool front today-tomorrow

·         Dec Corn Down $.0350 at $3.4950; March Down $.0350 at $3.6325.   Fund selling totaled 7 K on Friday

·         Nov SB Down $.0725 at $9.7025; Jan Down $.0725 at $9.76.  Funds: sold 6 K SB; 5 K SBM and 4 K SBO at the end of the week 

·         Dec Down $.03505 at $5.1425; March Down $.0325 at $5.2775  The funds were estimated to have sold 5 K Friday

CORN/SORGHUM                             &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                 

·       &n​bsp; December 2014 corn futures traded $3.65 on Friday—highest price since Sept. 2—but closed $0.0675 lower at $3.53

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn harvest estimated at 40-43% as of Oct. 26 vs. the 5-year avg. of approx. 65%

·         As of Oct. 24, the running average harvest crop insurance price for December 2014 corn futures was $3.43 ½

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 33.9 needed; 28.3 last week.  Milo—3.8 needed; 12.1 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 7,240 contracts  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean harvest est. at 75-78% as of Oct. 26 vs. the 5-year avg. of approx. 77%

·         Export Inspection released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 32.9 needed; 73.2 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 10,690 contracts

·         ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat planting est: 83-88% as of Oct. 26 vs. approx. 85% last year & 5-year avg. of 84%

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 16.8 needed; 17.7 last week

·         Commitment of Traders: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 2,773 contracts  

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly lower: QCLZ14,-$0.45 at $80.56; QRBZ,-$0.0188; QNGZ, +$.006; andQHOZ,-$.0204

·         Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Friday: Chicago off 3; Gulf eased 4 ½; Tampa down 2; Dallas lost 2 ½; New York slipped ½; and LA was 2 lower at $2.05 per gallon

·         RINs steady to lower: 2013’s unch at 45-45 ½; 2014’s down ¼ at 45 ¼-45 ¾; and 2015’s unch at 45-46

·         The November RBOB/Ethanol spread was little changed on Friday at $.4957 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &nbs​p;                          

·       &nb​sp; Choice boxed beef values were $2.02 lower Friday at $247.41 and are $1.75 lower compared to one week ago

·         After 6 months of year-to-year lower placements, USDA Cattle on Feed shows September placements up 1% vs. 2013

·         After falling $2.17 on Friday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value has declined $18.57 the last seven trading days

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $2.05 to $100.35.  December futures up $1.525 to $90.25 & are $10.10 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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