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Market Trend Corn, Down 2 to 3, Soybeans, Down 2 to 4, Wheat, 3 to 4 Lower

August 7, 2014 07:05 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans, Down 2-4; Wheat, 3-4 Lower

·         The Russian/West saga continues to somewhat roil financial markets.  Asia was mostly lower with the Hang Seng losing .80% overnight and Shanghai, down 1.34%. The Nikkei managed to close up .48% as weakness in the yen is expected to boost exports. Europe ranges from the DAX being barely unchanged to the FTSE down .15% and the CAC-40 .41% lower. U.S. futures have apparently discounted Putin’s latest move:  Dow futures are +24; the S&P, +4 and the Nasdaq, +3.  The $ Index is trading at 81.55, up .043; gold is $4.20 lower at $1,302.50 and energy futures are weaker across the Board

·         T-Storm Weather: Multiple waves of energy flow eastward through Sunday-Monday, developing areas of rain and thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall results – especially through Friday across the southwest half to two-thirds of corn and soybeans.  A larger wave likely breaks the muddled pattern around Monday, resulting in a multi-day period of cool and dry weather within August 11-14.  As coolness retreats later next week, it appears probable for renewed rain chances over August 15-20

·         Sep Corn Down $.0275 at $3.6050; December Down $.0275 at $3.7175.  The funds bought 6 K yesterday

·         August Soybeans Down $.0225 at $12.3475; Sep Down $.0325 at $10.9325.  Funds bought back 6 K SB; 4 K SBM and 4 K SBO

·         Sep Down $.0350 at $5.6450; December Down $.0350 at $5.8325.  The funds bought 8 KWednesday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 4 to 8mbu old-crop corn, 31-39 new-crop

·         T-storm Weather: Highest rainfall coverage and amounts of 1.25”-2.50” focus on the southwest half to two-thirds of U.S. corn through Sunday=Monday, while lesser amounts occur to the north and east

·         ATI Research: Corn planted May 1 in Central, IL has 1799 Growing Degree Days--91 below normal (widest of  season)

·         Ethanol grind: 902 thou barrels per day for the week ending Aug. 1—dn 52 thou vs. last week but up 5.7% vs. 2013   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales: 4 to 7mbu old-crop soy, 37-44 new ; soymeal, 50-150 K MT old, 250-450 new; soyoil, 0-20 old,  0-20 new

·         T-storm Weather: Despite high condition ratings, and that the coverage of topsoil dryness has diminished slightly in recent days, widespread rain is needed because 71% of U.S. soybean production was drier than usual the last 14 days

·         Export Sales: Trade expects 22-29mbu for all wheat

·         Wheat quality concerns are high in Europe due to rain; watching to see if increase in U.S. SRW export sales continues 

·         T-storm Weather: Periods of unhelpful rain to limit wheat harvesting in central and northern Europe

ENERGY

·         Futures are lower:  QCLU14, -$.33 at $96.59; QRBU, -$0.0036; QNGU,-$.007; and QHOU, -$.0054

·         Cash ethanol markets were firmer Wednesday: Chicago up 1 ¼; Gulf and Tampa added 1 ½; New York gained 1; Dallas climbed 2; and LA was ½ higher at $2.27 per gallon

·         RINs were steady to higher: 2012’s gained ¼ to 53-53 ½; 2013’s up ¼ to 53-54; and 2014’s were unch at 53 ¼-53 ¾

·         The September RBOB/September Ethanol spread is showing $.7597

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;             

·    &nb​sp;    After firming 14-cents over the previous two days, Choice boxed beef values fell $1.30 yesterday

·         Cash cattle lightly traded in Nebraska yesterday at $164, up $1 from last week

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value fell $1.12 yesterday and has declined $1.47 over the last two days

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.95 to $123.37.  August future up $0.55 to $116.40, but are $6.97 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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