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Market Trend Corn, Down 1 to 2; Soybeans, 5 to 7 lower; Wheat, 1 to 2 Lower

June 20, 2014 06:54 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, 5-7 lower; Wheat, 1-2 Lower

·         Asia finished mixed with both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite up .10-.15%; the Nikkei edged .08% lower.  Early trading in Europe finds the CAC 40 .06% lower while the FTSE is .32% higher and the DAX, up .18%.  Futures for major U.S. stock indices have turned slightly positive with the S&P +.5; the Dow, +8 and the NAS, +3.50.  Outside markets have energy futures mixed; the $ Index is up slightly, .024 at 80.42 and gold is retreating slightly, down $3.90 to $1,309.80 per oz

·         T-Storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms recur across the western Corn Belt Saturday-Sunday(including wettest areas of / near Iowa-Minnesota), then focus on the southern halves to two-thirds of the Corn Belt and Plains Sunday-Monday (including wettest areas of Kansas-Nebraska).  A surface-level high slides across the Corn Belt next week, suppressing rainfall and temps; highs stay in the 70s-80s with lows in the 50s-60s for at least 3-5 consecutive days.  A couple thunderstorm clusters are plausible along the edge of coolness, primarily in southern areas of the Corn Belt and / or Plains (including the wet HRW wheat belt)

·         July Corn Down $.0150 at $4.48; September Down $.0125 at $4.43.  The funds closed out Thursdayby adding 8 K to the long side

·         July Soybeans Down $.0575 at $14.15; August Down $.0650 at $13.6250.   Funds:  bought 5 K SB; even on SBM, buy 4 K SBO

·         July Wheat Down $.02 at $5.9150; September Down $.02 at $6.0050.  The funds bought an estimated 3 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         NWS July forecast: Equal chance of above- or below-normal precip for most of U.S. Midwest; temperatures forecast to be below- to much-below-normal in northwest Corn Belt, equal chance above- or below-normal in central Midwest

·         ATI Research: U.S. old-crop corn export sales in the latest week were a marketing year low of 4.3mbu.  Total sales for 14/15—including 3.1mbu in the latest week—are 125 million bushels vs. 197 last year and 229 in 2012

·         December 2014 corn futures settled $4.47 ½ Thurs.; December 2013 futures closed at $5.70 ½ on same date in 2013

·         T-storm Weather: Above-normal temps return to Plains/Midwest June 28-July 3, but sustained heat is not expected

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. old-crop soybean export sales were 3.6mbu in latest week, which represented the highest total in 4 weeks & the second highest since mid-March.  Total sales for 14/15 are 379mbu vs. 426 last year & 535 in 2012

·         T-storm Weather: Most northern soybean areas were near to wetter-than-usual over the last 60 days

·         Reports of Fusarium head blight (scab) in wheat have been reported in the southern portion of Illinois

·         ATI Research: U.S. all wheat export sales are routine; unshipped book is 222mbu vs. 252 last year and 188 in 2012

·         T-storm Weather: Above-normal rain forecast for most of Kansas through Tuesday may slow HRW wheat harvest

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed:  QCLN14, +$.15 at $106.58; QRBN, -$0.0022; QNGN, +$.008; and QHON, +$.0008

·         Cash ethanol prices continued to slide: Chicago off 6 ½; Gulf eased 4 ½; Dallas spilled 3 ½; New York dropped 4; Tampa was down a penny; and  LA was 1 ½ lower at $2.29 ½ per gallon

·         RINs continued higher: 2012’s gained 3 ¾ to 49-57; 2013’s up 4 ¼ at 50-57; and 2014’s jumped 5 to 49-57

·         The July RBOB/July ethanol spread added another 3 ¾ cents, moving out to $1.0795/gallon yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;            

·     &​nbsp;   Choice boxed beef values increased 92-cents yesterday and have gained $9.57 over the last five trading days

·         Cash cattle traded yesterday at $149 to $150, up $1 to $2 from last week’s mostly $148

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.26 yesterday and has increased $5.64 over the last four days

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.13 to $118.46.  July future up $2.625 to $128.05 and are $9.95 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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