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MARKET TREND CORN CZ, Up 2, SOYBEANS SX, Up 7, WHEAT

September 14, 2015 07:36 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCZ, Up $.0325;  SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.07;  WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0175;  KWZ: Steady   

·         More evidence the Chinese economy is slowing with August factory output rising “only” 6.1%, below expectations and follows a 5.5% drop in the month’s exports.  Raises hopes for further stimulus action.  Still, Shanghai lost 2.67%; the Nikkei closed 1.63% lower but the Hang Seng eked out a .27%  gain.  Europe:  slightly firmer with CACA 40, +.33%; DAX, +.37% and the FTSE, +.51%.  U.S. pre-markets suggest a higher opening with DOW futures up 37; the S&P is 6 ¼ higher and the NAS, +15.  Outside markets find the $ Index ever-so slightly higher, +.026 at 95.22; gold is $2.50 to the plus side and Oct WTI is 9 cents lower, $44.54

·         T-storm Weather: Weekend weather was within expectations as temperatures turned sharply cooler as the 12-day streak of above-normal warmth ended in dramatic fashion for U.S. corn and soybeans.  However, a frost or freeze did not occur.  Unseasonable coolness quickly breaks today as a large system in the West pulls warm air far northward, leading to another round of far above-normal temperatures through Thursday-Friday.  Mainly dry weather continues until the system passes and triggers a round of thunderstorms within Thursday-Saturday from southern Plains through the northwest half to two-thirds of Corn Belt

·         Dec Corn Up $.0325 at $3.9025;  Mar, Up $.03 at $4.0125.  The funds bought 10 Friday.  Dely: 231

·         Nov SB Up $.07 at $8.8125; Jan Up $.0725 at $8.8475.   Funds: even SB, bot 2 K SBM; sold 5 SBO.  Dely: SB, 220; SBM25; SBO, 41

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0175 at $4.8675; Mar Up $.0175 at $4.9525.   The funds bought 4 K to end the week.  Dely:  49 HRW; 20 SRW

CORN/SORGHUM                   &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                    

·         USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. corn could +/- 1 point vs. last week’s 68%.  Ratings for the same week last year were 74%.  The 5-year average for corn mature is approximately 40% 

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.87 on Friday, up $0.24 from the prior week and the highest settlement price since Aug. 11.  One year ago, the December 2014 corn contract closed at $3.38 ½

·         T-storm Weather: Ideal weather for U.S. corn harvest forecast into late-week followed by rain in some (not all) areas

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 3,195 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. soybeans could be +/- 1 point vs. last week’s 63%.  Ratings for same week last year were 72%.  The 5-year avg. for soybeans dropping leaves is approximately 31%

·         November 2015 soybean futures closed at $8.74 ¼ on Friday, up $0.0775 from the prior week.  One year ago, the November 2014 soybean contract settled at $9.85 ¼

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. winter wheat planting est. at 10-15% vs. approx. 11% last year & approx. 10% for 5-year avg.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 18.4 needed; 13.6 last week

ENERGY

·         Mixed: CLV15, -0.02, $44.61;  EBV,-$0.41; EBV-CLV, $3.10, -$0.41, RBV, -$.0029; NGV, +$.019; HOV, -$.0077

·         A firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago, Dallas and Tampa added 2; New York gained ¼; Gulf climbed 3 ¼; and LA was 2 higher at $1.63 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs weaker: 2013’s down 2 1/8 at 28 ½-30; 2014’s off 1 7/8 to 29 ½-31; & 2015’s eased 1 7/8 to 28 ½-30

·         The Oct RBOB/Sep Ethanol saw ethanol’s premium gain $.0401, to -$.1191 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    &n​bsp;                      

·       &n​bsp; Choice boxed beef values plummeted $2.97 on Friday to $236.09—the lowest level since Aug. 6

·         Cash cattle trading was noted Friday in Kansas with steer and heifer sales at $140

·         On Friday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 75-cents, but at $84.41 is still down 26-cents from last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.38 lower at $72.70.  October futures down $1.225 to $67.325 & $5.375 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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