MARKET TREND CORN CZ, Down 2, SOYBEANS SX, Unchanged
November 12, 2015 07:29 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Down $.0175; SOYBEANS: SX, Unchanged; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0175; KWZ: Up $.015
· World stocks are generally mixed ahead of remarks later Thursday from top officials at the Fed. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at a conference on monetary policy implementation. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.4% overnight, the Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.5% but Japan’s Nikkei nudged up fractionally. In Europe, the FTSE 100 is down 0.5% and the DAX is off 0.3%. Pre-opening trends in the U.S. are mixed: DOW, -8; NAS, +2; S&P, +`. Outside markets: the $ Index is .092 higher @ 99.25; gold is $1.77 higher at $1,086.47; and Dec crude is down $.13 @ $42.80/bl
· T-storm Weather: Dry and hot upper-level high pressure dominates Center-West Brazil and Bahia for at least the next five days, as exemplified Tuesday as 47% of Brazil soybean production reached at least 95F. Changes begin Monday and continue as next week progresses when a cool front helps thunderstorms to initially focus on drought-stricken Bahia, then gradually expand westward with time as the front gradually dissipates
· Dec Corn Up $.0175 at $3.605; Mar Up $.0175 at $3.6825. Funds bought 2 K on Wednesday
· Nov SB Unchanged at $8.685; Jan Down $.02 at $8.5875. Fund activity: bought 1 K SB; even SBM; and even SBO. Del’y: Zero
· Dec Wheat Up $.0175 at $4.965; Mar Up $.01 at $4.985. The funds were sold 8 K inMonday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM <wbr>        
· ATI Research: Important to note that projected 14/15 corn exports from Brazil—crop that was harvested last spring and will compete with U.S. origin into 2016—were raised 2.0 MMT in Tuesday’sUSDA WASDE to a record 31.0 MMT
· December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.62 ¼ Wednesday; one year ago, December 2014 futures settled at $3.77 ¾
· T-storm Weather: Over next 10 days, pockets of excessive rain & localized field flooding cannot be ruled out in/near Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (RGDS); rain may potentially exceed 5.00”. Full-season corn planting is complete in RGDS
· USDA WASDE shows large increase (+23%) in 15/16 carryin corn stocks in China due to downward revisions in feeding
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Since 1992, there have been 6 years when U.S. national average soybean yield increased in September, October and November. In 5 of those years, an increase was seen in January with the average just under 0.5 bpa
· T-storm Weather: As long as thunderstorms return next week to Brazilian soybean producing areas, the lack of rain short-term is unlikely to become a major issue since it was wet leading into the ongoing period of heat and dryness
· USDA WASDE boosts 15/16 wheat exports from FSU-12 to record 45.5 MMT—up 13% vs. previous record set last year
· T-storm Weather: Intense system Nov. 17-19 likely to result in heavy rain for U.S. SRW wheat in Corn Belt and Delta
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ15, -$0.13, $42.80; EBZ, -$0.05; EBZ-CLZ, $3.01, +$.13; RBZ, -$.0011; NGZ, +$.037; HOZ, +$.0043
· EIA estimates: crude, +1.1 (API: +6.3); Gasoline, -0.6 (-3.2); Distillates, -1.1 (-0.5)
· Cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly lower on Wednesday: Chicago, New York and Gulf were unchanged; Tampa and Dallas down ½; and LA was ½ lower at $1.61 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2014’s down 1/8 to 42 ¼ -42 ¾; 2015’s up 1/8 to 41 ¾-42; & 2016’s off ¼ at 42-42 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse is trading at -$.1626 per gallon on Thursday morning (-.002 vs. Wednesday)
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values declined $1.76 and are $5.33 lower compared to last week
· Choice boxed beef values have lost 2.4% over the past 5 trading days and are the lowest since Oct. 19
· On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 63-cents and is $1.19 lower vs. the prior week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $1.34 at $59.83. December futures $2.625 higher but are $3.655 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com
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