HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CU, Up $.0575; SOYBEANS: SU, Up $.1225; WHEAT: WU, Up $.0750; KWU: Up $.0575
· Overseas markets are a mixed bag this morning: The Shanghai Composite lost 7.6%; the Nikkei closed 3.96% lower while the Hang Seng managed to record a .72% gain. The former despite the Chinese Central Bank announcing plans to cut its 1 year lending rate to 4.6%. Europe has bounced back: FTSE, +3.23%; DAX, +4.22% and the CAC 40, +4.32%. Home price data is out in the U.S. today along with August consumer confidence. Futures suggest a rebound with the DOW at +595; the S&P, +70 ¾ and the NAS, +182. Outside markets: Energies are higher; gold is off $8.90 and the $ Index is up .874 at 94.23
· T-storm Weather: Cool to unseasonably cool weather continue into Friday. A warmer pattern initiates this weekend and continues next week as upper-level high pressure establishes, breaking coolness and leading to some heat in the Plains. A system develops along the expanding edge of warmth Thursday-Friday, developing thunderstorms in parts of the central Plains and western Corn Belt with the highest probability for significant rainfall across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A few thunderstorms also follow next week, but a lack of humidity keeps rainfall coverage much lower than in recent weeks & months
· Sep Corn Up $.0575 at $3.7450; Dec Up $.0575 at $3.86. The funds bought 5 K to start the week
· Sep SB Up $.1275 at $9.05; Nov Up $.0975 at $8.8350. The funds sold 8 K SB; 4 K SBM and 7 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Up $.0750 at $5.1075; Dec Up $.0675 at $5.1475. Fund buying totaled 2 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM         ;   </wbr>
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout up 28 mbu to 1.756 bbu due to reduction in feed/residual and exports; 15/16 up 76 to 1.577 bbu due to larger carryin and increased crop size
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; ‘15 crop size pegged at 573 mbu with 15/16 carryout steady at 95 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings steady at 69% with ATI crop estimate at 13.521 bbu
· USDA Crop Progress, corn dent: 39%, which is above last year’s 33% but below the 5-year average of 43%
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 8 mbu to 221 mbu due to increase in exports; 15/16 ending stocks up 57 million to 389 mbu as increased crop size (+65 million) offsets smaller carryin
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings steady at 63% with ATI crop est at 3.818 bbu
· T-storm Weather: Reduced coverage of rainfall into next week could potentially leave the southeast third to half of the Corn Belt dry, though 70% of U.S. soybean production received at least 3.00” of rain over the last 30 days
· USDA Crop Progress, spring wheat harvest: 75% vs. 26% for last year and the five-year average of 47%
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout unchanged at 172 mbu vs. 153 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Higher: CLV15, +1.34, $39.58; EBV,+$1.59; EBV-CLV, $4.72, +$.27, RBV, +$.0263; NGV, +$.033; HOV, +$.0408
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly lower on Monday: Chicago off ¾; New York and Tampa down 1 ½; Gulf up ¾; Dallas eased 2; and LA was 3 ¾ lower at $1.61 ¼ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2013’s off 1 at 37-38; 2014’s eased ½ to 38-40; and 2015’s down 1 at 37-38
· The Sep RBOB/Sep Ethanol spread narrowed further, losing to nearly 7 cents to $.0280/gallon on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; </wbr>
· Choice boxed beef values were 59-cents weaker on Monday, and at $244.31 are $1.21 lower vs. the prior week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was $3.43 lower last week at $147.19/cwt & is down $5.95 vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 6-cents lower, and at $87.22 is down $2.03 vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.20 at $78.89. October futures up $3.00 at $65.825 but are $13.065 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather