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Market Trend Corn, CU down 1, Soybeans, SQ up 6, WU, up 1 , KWU

July 14, 2015 07:12 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CU down 1 ¼; Soybeans, SQ up 6 ¼; WU, up 1 ½; KWU, down ¾            

·         World markets meander post-Greece; agreement reached but now will Greece’s legislators be an obstacle?   China closes down 1.1%; the Hang Seng sheds .4% while the Nikkei posts a 1.5% gain.  Europe’s euphoria fades:  DAX off .55%; the FTSE is down .34% and the CAC 40, off .26%.  Futures suggest a mixed start on Wall Street: DOW, -16; NAS, +1; S&P 500, -1.75.  Outside markets:  energies are mostly lower with Aug WTI down $1.06; the $ Index is off a ¼ point to 96.755 and gold is  $2.40 cheaper at $1,153.00.  Iran & the Big Six reach a historic nuclear agreement, pressuring oil.  Still, deal could face obstacles in the District

·         T-storm Weather: It is most probable for heat to impact the southwest third of the central U.S. over the next week with near- and above-normal temperatures elsewhere (from above-normal maximums and / or minimums).  Waves of energy flow along the fluctuating edge of heat to erupt thunderstorm clusters from time to time.  Widespread coverage of near- and above-average rainfall results, aiding many crops but also keeping many crops wetter than ideal since highest totals focus on wettest areas

·         July Corn Up $.0150 at $4.35; Sep Down $.0125 at $4.3950.    Funds bought 6 K to begin the week.   Dely: Corn, 575

·         July SB Up $.1475 at $10.60; Aug Up $.0625 at $10.4375.   Funds: Bought 5 K SB; 2 K SBM; 2 K SBO.   Dely: SBO, 158

·         July Wheat Up $.0525 at $5.8675;  Sep Up $.0125 at $5.77.   The funds sold 2 K Monday.    Dely: HRW, 6; SRW, 0

CORN/SORGHUM                    ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                   

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 16 mbu v. last week, 1.830 bbu; 15/16 dn 219, 1.505 bbu  

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout steady at 38 mbu; 15/16 down 4 at 66 mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings steady at 69% with ATI crop estimate at 13.310 bbu

·         USDA Crop Progress, corn silking: 27%, which is below last year’s 31% and behind the 5-year average of 34%

·         T-storm Weather: A large and hot upper-level high drives U.S. weather short-term.  It most likely expands with time given an array of hints dating back to last week.  Therefore, ideal coolness is not expected over the next two weeks

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unch at 261; 15/16 down 9 million to 250 mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings at 62%, which is down one point from last week.  ATI crop estimate is 3.654 bbu

·         USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent spring wheat crop ratings up one point at 71%; ATI crop estimate, 563 mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress, winter wheat harvest: 65% vs. 67% last year and the avg. of 68%.  Midwest SRW progress lagging

·         ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout down 21 mbu from last week to 165 mbu

ENERGY

·         Mostly Weaker:  CLQ15, -1.06, $51.41; EBQ, -1.05; EBQ-CLQ, +5.69, +$.04, RBQ, -$.0351;NGQ, +$.002; HOQ, -$.028

·         A mixed trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago eased ¼; New York steady; Gulf up ¼; Tampa added ½; Dallas unchanged; and LA was 1 ¼ lower at $1.83 ¾ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs for 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all up ½ at 46 ¼ in a range from 46-46 ½

·         The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread narrowed $.0829/gallon on Monday, settling at $.2846

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    &n​bsp;                      

·       &n​bsp; Choice boxed beef values were down 98-cents on Monday at $236.00—another new low for calendar year 2015

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price decreased $0.35 last week to $151.00/cwt & is down $4.89 vs. last year

·         On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.61 but, at $81.51, is still down 19-cents from a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index up $0.51 to $79.75.  July futures $0.10 higher at $79.075, but are $0.675 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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