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Market Trend Corn, CN Down 4, Soybeans, SN Down 2, Wheat, WN,

May 19, 2015 07:06 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Down $.0375; Soybeans, SN Down $.02; Wheat, WN, Down $.0850; KWN, Down $.0725

·         China to spend $39 billion for rail upgrades and to speed up reform of the financial sector; market responds favorably as Shanghai closes up 3.15%; Nikkei gains .68% and Hang Seng rises .37%.  ECB banker says entity will be more aggressive on asset purchase program—DAX and CAC 40 up nearly 1.8%; FTSE gains a more modest .40% as UK potentially in deflationary territory.  U.S futures suggest a higher start: DOW, +54; S&P, +5.50; NAS, +17.  Crude’s off $.39; gold is down $6.50 & the $ Index is again higher, +.641

·         T-Storm Weather:  No changes as a  strong system dumps widespread 1-2” amounts on the central and southern Plains tonight through Wednesday.  A 2nd system will bring widespread rain to the region again Thursday-Saturday, turning the C/S Plains increasingly wet. Any rain is viewed as unneeded for HRW wheat in the Plains given that current moisture levels.  A similar but warmer pattern likely continues next week, as well; widespread coverage of near-and above-average rainfall is most likely beyond Sunday-Monday.

·         July Corn Down $.0375 at $3.6425; Sep Up $.0350 at $3.7175.      The funds bought 4 K to open the week  

·         July SB Down $.02 at $9.5250; Aug Down $.0275 at $9.4475.   Funds: bought 1 K SB; 4 K SBM; sold 3 K SBO

·         July Wheat Down $.0850 at $5.1325; Sep Down $.0725 at $5.22.   The funds bought 7 K on Monday

CORN/SORGHUM                             ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;          

·     &​nbsp;   USDA Crop Progress: corn was 85% planted nation-wide, at the low end of estimates but 10 ahead of the 5-year and 14 above 2014

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn emergence came at 56%, versus 45-50%  estimated and well ahead of last year’s 32% figure and the 5-year average of 40%

·         Export Inspections were delayed with expected release this morning: Corn, 43.2 needed; 44.7 last week.  Milo—4.8 needed; 6.8 last week

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. soybean plantings were 45%, versus 45-50% expected; 31% last year & the 5-year of 36%

·         Export Inspections delayed: Soybeans, 6.3 needed; 9.7 last week

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. spring wheat 94% planted versus  90-95% expected; 47% last year & 5-year of 65%

·         Export Inspections delayed: Wheat, 24.0 needed; 13.9 last week

·         Note that a hard frost/freeze affected the N Plains overnigh; a few minimums in the upper 20s. Should have minimal C/B impact although a majority of spring wheat has emerged as of last Sunday

·         Forecasted SBM exports from India are likely to be down almost 60% at 1.9 MMT this year and it looks as if China will ship about 15% less for a 1.7 MMT shortfall. Doubtful if Argentine producers will sell enough to make up the shortfall

ENERGY

·         Weaker:  CLM15, -$0.39; EBN, -$0.63; EBN-CLM, +6.60, RBM, -$.0140; NGM, +$.037; HOM, -$.0154

·         Cash ethanol markets were 1-2 higher Monday:  NY moved up 1 ¾; and LA gained 1; Dallas and Tampa were both a penny higher; the Gulf and Chicago edged up a ½ cent with the latter trading at a $1.69 ¼ midpoint

·         RINs--mixed: 2013’s up ½ to 73 1/2 -75; 2014’s slipped a ½ cent to 74 1/2-75 ½; and 2015’s lost 7/8’s to 72 ½-73 ¾ 

·         The June RBOB/June Ethanol spread lost 2 ¼ cent, settling at $.3541 on Monday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &​nbsp;                       

·      &​nbsp;  Choice boxed beef values gained 99-cents on Monday and are $3.35 higher compared to a week ago

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $1.13 last week to $160.80/cwt, but is up $14.37 vs. last year

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 92-cents lower on Monday and is up $3.48 from a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.39 to $82.06.  June futures $0.95 lower at $82.40 but are $0.34 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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