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Market Trend Corn, CN Down 2, Soybeans, SN Up 3, WN, Down

June 4, 2015 07:20 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Down 1 ¾; Soybeans, SN Up $.0225; WN, Down $.0250; KWN, Dwon $.02

·         Volatile day in Shanghai, down as much as 5% then closing .76% higher—pressure came from rumors of higher margin restrictions.  The Nikkei edged up .07% and the Hang Seng closed down .38%.  ECB holds rates steady but Greece and nervousness about a possible early end to the EU’s bond buying program sent indices lower by mid-day:  FTSE, down 1.25%; DAX, -1.41% and CAC 40,-1.71%.  Pre-markets don’t bode well for Wall Street:  DOW futures, 97 lower; NAS, off 40 and the S&P, 12 ¾ lower. The $ Index is in retreat, .689 lower; gold is $2.50 cheaper at $1,182.20 and energy futures are higher with July cruce up 15-20 cents

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures average near to slightly cooler than normal across the Corn Belt through 10 days, while upper-level high pressure to the west keeps the Plains mild.  At least near-average rainfall is expected across a large area through the period.  More specifically, waves of energy flow along the edge of the high through Sunday resulting in areas of thunderstorms within the central / northern Plains, Corn Belt, or Delta each day.  The best chance for heavy rainfall of 1.25" to 2.75" is from the Kansas-Nebraska border into Iowa & Missouri, and a low potential for unneeded rainfall continues from central Kansas and south

·         July Corn Down $.0175 at $3.5725; Sep Down $.0150 at $3.6425. The funds bought estimated 3 K at mid-week

·         July SB Up $.0225 at $9.3750; Aug Up $.0175 at $9.2625.  Funds: Sold 4 K  SB; were even on SBM and bought 5 K SBO

·         July Wheat Down $.0250 at $5.0825; Sep Down $.0250 at $5.1250.   The funds sold 2 KWednesday

CORN/SORGHUM                &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 22 to 30 mbu old-crop corn, 4-12 new-crop

·         ATI Research: The updated 2015 U.S. corn yield estimate is 166.8 bpa using 81.7 million harvested acres for a crop estimate of 13.626 bbu

·         T-storm Weather: Total of 13% of U.S. corn production received at least twice its average rain over the last 30 days

·         Ethanol grind: 972,000 barrels per day for week end May 29--up 3 thou vs. last week and 3.6% higher vs. a year ago

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         November 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.15 Thursday.; one year ago, November 2014 futures settled at $12.21 ¾

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 6 to 13 mbu old-crop, 2-6 new-crop; soymeal, 75-150 old-crop, 100-200 new-crop; soyoil, 0-12 old-crop, zero new-crop

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean exports pegged at 8.4 mbu per week for the up-coming 4-week period vs. 6.0 last year

·         T-storm Weather: Total of 66% of U.S. HRW wheat production received at least twice its average rain the last 30 days

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects -3 to +4 mbu for old-crop all wheat, 7-15 new-crop

ENERGY

·         Fimer: CLN15, +$0.17 at $59.81; EBN, +$0.24; EBN-CLN, +4.22, +$.07, RBN, +$.0031; NGN, +$.017; HON, +$.0005

·         Cash ethanol markets were slightly firmer on Wednesday: Chicago up 5/8; New York and Dallas gained 1 ¼; Gulf added ½; Tampa climbed ¾; and LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.68 ½ per gallon

·         No letup in RINs weakness: 2013’s down 3 ¾ to 37-38 ½; 2014’s off 3 ¼ to 37 ½-39; and 2015’s eased 2 ¼ to 37 ½-39

·         The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread retreated tightened 2 ¾ cents, to $51.03 Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       ​                        &​nbsp;           <​/wbr>

·         Choice boxed beef values were down $2.31 on Wednesday and are at the lowest level sinceMarch 24

·         Cattle slaughter for Wednesday was estimated at 111,000 head compared to 117,000 last week and 117,00 a year ago

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 47-cents lower but at $85.61, is up 15-cents vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.24 at $82.39.  June futures were $0.925 lower at $83.55 & are $1.16 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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