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Market Trend Corn, CK Steady to Up 1, Soybeans, SK Down 3 to 4, Wheat, WK

March 31, 2015 08:43 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CK Steady to Up ¼; Soybeans, SK Down 3-4;  Wheat, WK Down 4

·         Shanghai & the Nikkei give up early gains to close down .99% and 1.05% as China introduces measure to bolster its sagging real estate market.  Hang Seng and Kospi end slightly higher.  Europe is weaker at mid-day with losses ranging from .24% (CAC 40) to .88% (FTSE).  U.S. futures set to give back some of Monday’s gains:  DOW, down 86; NAS, 19 lower and the S&P, off 11.  Energy futures are noticeably lower with CLK of $1; gold is steady and the $ Index is up nearly 2/3’s of a point at 99.38

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures average warmer or much-warmer than usual across the central / southern Plains and Delta over the next 10-14 days.  The fairly sharp north-south temperature gradient causes the jet stream to flow through the central U.S., which results in near- or above-average rainfall across the Corn Belt and Delta as waves of energy interact with sufficient humidity this week and next week.  A few showers and thunderstorms also occur in HRW wheat areas of the central Plains, but best chances are along the fringe of concentrated production, mainly Wednesday night and Thursday night / Friday

·         May Corn Unch  at $3.94 ½; July Up $.0025 at $4.0275. The Funds bought 5 K on Monday

·         May SB Down $.0375 at $9.64; July Down $.0350 at $9.6925.  The Funds bought 2 K SB; 3 K SBM and was even SBO on Monday

·         May Wheat Down $.0375 at $5.2650; July Down $.0425 at $5.29.  The Funds bought 9 K to begin the week 

CORN/SORGHUM                              ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;         

·      &n​bsp;  ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 3 mbu compared to last week to 1.750 bbu

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged at 27 mbu

·         T-storm Weather: Most U.S. corn needs rain given coverage of agricultural drought is much higher than last 3 years

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. corn acreage, 88.9 mil (range 87.0-89.9) v. 90.6 mil last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. corn stocks, 7.609 bbu (range 7.459-7.800) v. 7.008 bbu last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 15 mbu vs. last week to 379 mbu

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. soybean acreage, 86.0 mil (range 83.1-88.0) v. 83.7 last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. soybean stocks, 1.348 bbu (range 1.250-1.413) v. 0.994 bbu last year

·         T-storm Weather: 78% of U.S. HRW wheat production was drier than usual over the last 30 days, which is slightly drier than one and two years ago; dryness is particularly widespread in Kansas where 99% of production is affected

·         ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 195 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 210 mbu

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat acreage, 55.6 mil (range 55.0-56.8) v. 56.8 last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat stocks, 1.141 bbu (range 1.083-1.200) v. 1.057 bbu last year

ENERGY

·         Weaker:  CLK15, -$0.96 at $47.91; EBK, -$1.29 at $55.00; EBK-CLK, +7.50, RBK, -.0310; NGK, +$.007; HOK, -$.0313

·         Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Monday: Chicago gained 2 ¼; New York added 3; Gulf up ¼; Tampa climbed 1 ½; Dallas tacked on 1; and LA was 3 higher at $1.67 ¾ per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2013’s up ¾ to 69-70; 2014’s gained ¾ to 69 ¾-71 ¼; and 2015’s added ½ to 68 ¾-69 ¾

·         The April RBOB/April Ethanol spread lost nearly 3 ½ cents to $.2726/gallon—concerns of fewer corn acres

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;                     

·        &n​bsp;Choice boxed beef values were 90-cents higher on Monday and are up $5.91 compared to last week

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price increased $2.02 last week to $165.57/cwt and is up $13.36 vs. last year

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 9-cents lower on Monday and is down $2.81 vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.43 lower at $59.96.  April futures up $0.175 at $61.30 and $1.34 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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