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Market Trend Corn, 5 to 6 Lower, Soybeans, 5 Lower, Wheat, 15 to 16 Lower. French

December 19, 2014 07:45 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 5-6 Lower; Soybeans, 5 Lower; ; Wheat, 15-16 Lower.  French wheat, Down 9 ¼;  Corn, 3 lower

·         Asia ended the week on a sharply higher note, stemming from the Fed’s mid-week remarks:  Nikkei, up 2.39%; Shanghai, +1.7% and the Hang Seng, +1.25%.  However, Europe has turned weaker and mid-day finds both the DAX and CAC 40 .6-.7% lower with the FTSE ¼% to the plus side. This despite growing confidence the ECB will expand its asset buying program to sovereign bonds in 2015.   Pre-market indications for the U.S. equity markets have DOW futures up 32; the NAS is 13 higher and the S&P500, up 3.50. The Ruble was down 3%, off its lows. Outside markets:  energy, mostly higher; $ Index, +.133 @ 89.61; gold, +$1.80 to $1,196.50

·         T-storm Weather: Widely scattered thunderstorms dot Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the next few days, but the main event for Brazil (and Paraguay) occurs within Sunday-Tuesday when a strong cool front triggers heavy thunderstorms.  Heavy rainfall of 1.50”-2.50” is probable across South Brazil and Paraguay to further break prior drying.  Amounts of 1.50”-3.00” are most probable in Center-West and Southeast Brazil.  Considerably less rain occurs in key areas of Argentina, thereby aiding planting and wheat harvesting, while reducing wet pockets

·         Mar Corn Down $.05 at $4.06; May Down $.05 at $4.1450.  Funds were again buyers of 5 K

·         Jan SB Down $.06 at $10.29; March Down $.06 at $10.3725.  Funds: bought 5 K SB; 4 K SBM; even again on SBO

·         Mar Down $.17 at $6.3825; May Down $.1825 at $6.3850.  The funds bought 5 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                               &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;       

·         Dec​ember 2015 corn futures traded to $4.37 ¼ Thurs., which is the highest price for the contract since July 8, 2014

·         Outstanding U.S. corn export sales as of Dec. 11: 540 mbu vs. 699 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 468 mil

·         Outstanding U.S. sorghum export sales as of Dec. 11: 118 mbu vs. 70 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 29 mil

·         T-storm Weather: Soil moisture is adequate for corn planting and growth across Argentina given near- and above-average rainfall totals over the last 30 days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Outstanding U.S. soybean export sales as of Dec. 11: 608 mbu vs. 682 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 508 mil

·         T-storm Weather: At least near-average rainfall occurs into late-month across most soybean growing areas of Brazil with heaviest amounts forecast for Dec. 21-23

·         Outstanding U.S. wheat export sales as of Dec. 11: 186 mbu vs. 198 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 202 mil

·         Updated NWS U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook: Drought persists/intensifies for U.S. Southern Plains through March

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly +higher: QCLF14, +$0.84 at $54.95; QRBF, +$0.0220; QNGF, -$.039; andQHOF, +$.0251

·         A mostly lower trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago and Gulf eased 1 ½; Dallas down 1; New York gained 11; Tampa down ½; and LA was 8 lower at $1.80 per gallon

·         Steady to slight gains in RINs: 2013’s unch at 63-65; 2014’s up ½ to 65-66 ½; and 2015’s added ¾ to 64 ½-66

·         The inverse in the January RBOB/January ethanol spread rose over $.06 to -$.1148, anticipated ETOH export demand

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &nbs​p;                     

·         Choice boxed beef values declined 46-cents on Thurs., are down $5.84 vs. last week & at the lowest level since Oct. 6

·         Dressed steer weights: 901 lbs—unch vs. last week, 1.75 lbs below the prior 4-week avg. but 24 lbs heavier than 2013

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value declined 5-cents Thurs., is $3.28 below last week & at lowest level since Jan. 24, 2014

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.80 at $85.15.  February futures up $1.40 to $81.875 & are $3.275 below the index  

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 1.7% from last year and average set over the last four weeks is 2.7% above 2013

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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