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Market Trend Corn, 3 to 4 Higher, Soybeans, 4 to 5 Higher, Wheat, 1 Lower

December 15, 2014 07:11 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 3-4 Higher; Soybeans, 4-5 Higher; Wheat, ¼ to ¾ Lower

·         Japanese business outlook “not favorable”; Islamic terrorist hostage situation in Australia; oil higher.  Asia closes mostly lower:  Nikkei, -1.57%; Hang Seng, -.95%; Shanghai posts a ½% gain.  Europe higher at mid-day:  DAX+.2%; CAC 40, +.4%; FTSE, +.4%.  U.S. futures indicate a higher start after the worst weekly performance in 3 years:  DOW, +119; NAS, +36; S&P,+16.  Energy futures are higher; the $ Index, +.175 and gold,$10 lower at $1,212

·         T-storm Weather: Although it remains notable that surface-level high pressure will limit rainfall coverage and amounts in South Brazil and Paraguay over the next week, a cool front passes and triggers scattered thunderstorms Wed-Thurs and again around Sunday; 0.50”-1.00” of rain is most probable.  Otherwise, a few thunderstorms dot Argentina Mon-Tues and around Sat. as a cool front passes.  High coverage of heavy rain is not expected with driest weather in the south, thereby allowing wheat harvesting to continue.  Further north, scattered thunderstorms continue in Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil through 10 days

·         Mar Corn Up $.0350 at $4.1075; May Up $.0325 at $4.19. Dely:  951.  Funds bought 15 K to close out the week 

·         Jan SB Up $.04 at $10.5120; March Up $.04 at $10.5775.  Dely: 65 SBM, 69 SBO  Funds: bot 8 K SB; sold 4 K SBM, bot 2 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Down $.0075 at $6.06; May Down $.0025 at $6.0850.  Dely: 1 SRW, 1 KW.  The funds again bought 4 K on Friday

CORN/SORGHUM                                         &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                     

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $4.07 ½ on Friday--the first time the contract has settled above $4.00 since July 10

·         T-storm Weather: Threatening weather is not immediately foreseen across most grain areas of South America

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 36.1 needed; 21.0 last week.  Milo—3.7 needed; 8.2 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 12,660 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 23.4 needed; 81.0 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 8,035 contracts

·         T-storm Weather: Subsoil moisture is adequate for soybean growth across much of Argentina, Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil given near- and above-average rainfall totals over the last 30 days

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 18.8 needed; 9.9 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions increase 7,885 contracts

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher:  QCLF14, +$0.41 at $58.20; QRBF, +$0.0161; QNGF, +$.078; and QHOF, +$.0343

·         A weaker tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago and Gulf down 7 ½; Dallas slid 6; Tampa eased 3 ½; New York declined 12 ½; and LA was ½ lower at $2.18 per gallon

·         RINs were steady to higher: 2013’s unch at 59-60 ½; 2014’s unch at 60-61 ½; and 2015’s up ½ at 60-61 ½

·         The January RBOB/January ethanol spread retreated $.0267/gallon to -$.0944 on Friday, premium to ethanol 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p; 

·       &nb​sp; Choice boxed beef values declined $2.76 on Friday, are down $7.51 vs. last week & at the lowest level since Oct. 7

·         December live cattle futures traded to $160.375 on Friday, which is the lowest price for the contract since Sept. 25

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.47 on Friday but is still 59-cents below a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.39 at $88.05.  December futures, which expired Friday at $87.525 was $0.525 below the index.  The February lean hog contract closed at $83.25 on Friday, which is $4.80 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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