HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, 4-5 Lower; Wheat, 3 Lower. Europe: Wheat, Up 1; Corn, Up ¾
· Asia was mostly lower overnight in sympathy with Tuesday’s U.S. markets—the Nikkei lost .56%; the Hang Seng was off sharply, 1.28% while Shanghai was closed for China’s National Day holiday. There’s Market talk that Japan’s economy may have declined again in the 3rd quarter. Europe finds the DAX up .14% but both the FTSE (-.47%) and the CAC 40 (-.35%) are lower. Pre-market indications suggest Wall Street will begin the day lower: Dow futures are 10 lower; the S&P, down 2 and the NASDAQ, off 6 ½. The dollar continues to march higher, the $ Index is up .175 at 86.395; energy futures are all higher and gold is $3.0 to the downside at $1,207.50 per oz.
· T-Storm Weather: Large temperature fluctuations through Thursday culminate in a strong cold front that sends temperatures plummeting Friday with gusty winds across much of the central U.S. Widespread rain results across the Corn Belt and Delta Thursday-Friday as the front approaches and then passes. A return to mildness is not expected to follow as cool air occasionally filters southward from Canada; the exception is in southern areas. Frosts and some freezes are likely in northern areas, but the U.S. crop is more advanced than in prior weeks
· Dec Corn Down $.0175 at $3.19; March Down $.02 at $3.3150 The funds sold 6 K on Tuesday
· Nov Soybeans Down $.0475 at $9.0850; Jan Down $.0450 at $9.1675. Del’y: 259 SBO. Funds: sold 5 K SB; 5 K SBM, 4 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Down $.0325 at $4.7450; March Down $.0350 at $4.87. The funds sold 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Updated National Weather Service October forecast: Above- to much-above normal precip for much of the Corn Belt
· ATI Research: Brazil remains low price origin for world corn exports at $152, $18 per MT ($0.46/bu) below the U.S.
· Private crop consultant: Frost may have minor impact on later developing U.S. corn but not a major impact nationally
· Ethanol margins: $0.60 per gallon vs. $0.67 last week and below $1.03 last year. EIA report at9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Pace of U.S. soybean export sales the past month is 54mbu/week, well above the 5–year avg. of 30.0
· Private crop consultant: Brazil weather has generally been favorable for early soybean planting; 2% planted v. 1% avg.
· ATI Research: Further reduction in 14/15 U.S. HRW wheat export forecast is possible in Oct. 10USDA WASDE report
· T-storm Weather: Recent heavy rainfall in wheat producing areas of South Brazil is likely deteriorating crop quality
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLX14,+$0.45 at $91.61; QRBX,+$0.0096; QNGX, +$.024; and QHOX, +$.0084
· A mostly steady tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago off ¼; Gulf unchanged; New York eased 1; Tampa unchanged; Dallas down ½; and LA was steady at $1.73 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): crude, +0.9 mb (-0.5); gasoline, -0.8 (-2.5); distillates, -0.2 (-1.8)
· RINs were steady to lower: 2012’s off 1 at 44-45 ½; 2013’s down ½ at 45 ½-46; & 2014’s unch at 46 ¼-46 ½
· The October RBOB/Ethanol spread close 120 ½ cents lower at $.9959
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values firmed a penny yesterday and have gained 37-cents over the last two days
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking around $162 this week, but no packer bids reported
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.62 yesterday and has gained $3.59 over the last two days
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.66 to $108.96. October futures up $0.65 to $107.975, but are $0.985 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather