HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, ½ to 1 Lower; Soybeans, 7-8 Lower; Wheat, ¼ to ½ Higher
· Today, stocks are “drifting” ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve policy decision. Asia was mixed with the Nikkei closing up .8%; the Hang Seng lost .2% while Shanghai slipped .5%. Early results from Europe are weaker with .3% declines noted for both the FTSE & DAX; the CAC-40 is off 2/3’s of a percent. Data watchers will scrutinize November U.S. inflation data later in the morning for possible insight into Fed decision-making. U.S. futures are mixed: both the S&P and Nasdaq are marginally weaker; the Dow, .3% to the plus side. Gold is a ½% lower at $1,237.90/oz; the energies are lower and the H14 $ Index is .024 higher at 80.25
· T-storm Weather: A large area of upper-level high pressure results in a long period of heat across Argentina. Although a few thunderstorms occur in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay, organized rainfall primarily focuses to the south and west of key areas. In the U.S., a powerful system slides across the central or southern areas this weekend, but its path is uncertain. Given a number of feasible scenarios, we conclude that heavy rainfall of 1.00” – 3.00” is forthcoming to much of the SRW wheat belt, while a low to moderate chance for a significant snow or ice system develops to the immediate north
· Mar Corn Down $.0075 at $4.2250; May Down $.0075 at $4.31. The funds sold 5 on Monday
· Jan SB Down $.07at $13.3075; Mar SB Down $.0725 at $13.18. The funds bought 6 K SBO, 5 K SBM and sold 2 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0025 at $6.22; May Up $.0025 at $6.28. Funds were again sellers of 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2014 corn futures made a new contract low on Monday at $4.47 ¼ before ending the day at $4.50 ¼. By comparison, the December 2013 corn contract closed at $6.22 on this date a year ago
· ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout down 130mbu vs. last week to 1.781Bbu; 14/15 down a like amount to 2.060Bbu
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. exports are estimated at 30-33 per week, significantly better than 2012’s up-coming 4-week average of 10/week and 6 million higher than the 5-year average of 27 million.
· Export Inspections; Corn, 25.1mbu (28.7 needed), China took 8.5. Milo, 0.5 (3.9) with China in for 76 thou bushels
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to average of 45-50 over the next month, versus 41/week last year
· ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout is unchanged from last week at 113mbu with 14/15 also stable at 353mbu
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 62.5mbu (19.2 needed) with China taking 36.7
· T-storm Weather: Dryness is not a concern for overwintering U.S. SRW wheat, but remains a slow-developing issue for the 23% of HRW wheat that received less than one-half of its average precipitation over the last 60 days
· ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat carryout up 10mbu vs. last week to 535mbu with 14/15 pegged at 685mbu
· Export Inspections: Wheat, 17.6mbu (16.8 needed); China takes 4.1
ENERGY
· Energy markets—weaker: QCLF14,-$0.23 at $97.25; QRBF, -$0.0061; QNGF, -$.044 and QHOF, -$.0095
· Cash ethanol markets recorded additional losses to begin the week: Chicago declined 4; Gulf down 9; Dallas and New York both lost a nickel; Tampa declined 4 ½; while LA was down 6 ½ to $2.45 per gallon
· RINs slightly weaker: 2012’s down ¼ to 27 ¾-28 ¾; 2013’s off ¼ to 28 ¾-29 ¾; & 2014’s were 1 ¼ lower at 27 ¾-28 ¾
· The January RBOB/January ethanol spread was little changed on Monday at $.8677/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· After falling $3.72 over the previous two trading days, Choice boxed beef values rebounded $1.08 yesterday
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $130.61, down $1.25 from the week before
· After falling $3.35 over the previous three trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value jumped $3.81 yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $3.34 yesterday to $75.50
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather