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Market Trend Corn, 1 lower Soybeans, 2 to 3 Higher, Wheat, Steady

May 16, 2014 07:30 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, ¼ higher to ¼ lower; Soybeans, 2-3 Higher;  Wheat, Steady +/-

·         Thursday’s activity on Wall Street apparently set the tone for many overseas markets.  The Nikkei fell 1.4%; the Hang Seng eased .08% while Shanghai managed to eke out a .08% gain. Europe is off to a weaker start:  the CAC-40 is down 1.65%; the DAX, -.67% and the FTSE, -.33%.  U.S. futures aren’t much brighter:   Dow, 36 lower; S&P, off 4 ½ and the Nasdaq, -10 ½.  Outside markets have gold up $1.55/oz at $1,295; the energy markets are most firmer as tension in the Ukraine persists and the $ Index is trading at 80.24, up .058.  Equity trading today will focus on April housing starts and U of MI consumer sentiment findings

·         T-Storm Weather: Coolness continues into the weekend from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt.  Pockets of light showers occur in various areas, but well-organized rainfall is not expected for most.  Sharp warming quickly unfolds Sunday-Monday, then generally dominates next week as above-average maximums in the 70s, 80s and 90s occur; 100s at times in the central / southern Plains.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany warming in northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains Monday-Tuesday.  Limited rainfall is likely to the south, but rain chances there increase later next week or weekend (within May 21-25)

·         July Corn Up $.0025 at $4.8450; September Up $.0050 at $4.8150.   The funds sold 7 K as weather improves, equity mrkts

·         July Soybeans Up $.0225 at $14.7225; August Up $.0275 at $14.0450.  Funds:  sold 8 K SB along with 5 K SBM and 2 K SBO

·         July Wheat Steady at $6.7825; September Up $.0025 at $6.8725.  More fund liquidation with 5 K soldon Thursday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         July 2014 corn futures traded down to $4.81 ¾ on Thursday, the lowest price since March 31

·         ATI Research: Old-crop corn export sales solid at 13.5mbu vs. trade range of 8-16.  New-crop sales, however, were lackluster at only 1.9mbu.  Record amount of old-crop unshipped corn for Western Hemisphere other than Mexico

·         T-storm Weather: Total of 80% of U.S. corn production is wet at the high-topsoil level

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Old-crop soybean export sales total of 2.7mbu was above the range of -4 to +2 with Indonesia, Mexico and Japan the major buyers.  New-crop sales of 11.9 were also above the top end of the trade range of 6-11

·         NOPA April crush: 132.7mbu was fractionally above the avg. guess of 132.5; soyoil stocks were larger than expected

  • ATI Research: Poor old-crop wheat export sales of 2.0 vs. trade range of 4-11.  New-crop also light at just 7.2mbu
  • T-storm Weather: Only forecasting a low chance for rain across driest HRW wheat areas May 21-25

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly higher:  QCLM14, +$0.14 at $101.65; QRBM, +$0.0032; QNGM, -$.034; and QHOM, +$.0067

·         Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Thursday: Chicago and Gulf gained 1; New York lost 1; Tampa jumped 8; Dallas added 4; and LA climbed 7 to $2.52 ½ per gallon

·         Mixed trend in RINs: 2012’s off ¼ at 46-47; 2013’s up ½ to 47-48 ½; and 2014’s added ½ to 46-46 ½

·         The June RBOB/June ethanol spread eased $.0144 per gallon to $.7738 on Thursday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​;                         ​;                

  • Aft​er falling $1.53 on Wednesday, Choice boxed beef values rebounded 13-cents yesterday
  • Cash cattle lightly traded yesterday at $144 to $145, down $1 to $2 from last week
  • The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 4-cents yesterday and has increased $1.42 over the last two days
  • The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 57-cents yesterday to $109.88

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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