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Market Trend Corn, 1 Higher, Soybeans, 3 to 4 Lower, Wheat, 2

October 17, 2014 07:11 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, ½ to 1 Higher; Soybeans, 3-4 Lower; Wheat, 2 Higher.    Europe:  Wheat, + 5 ½; Corn, unchanged            

·        &​nbsp;Perhaps some civility in the global equity markets to close out the week, sort of:  while the Hang Seng rose .53%, Shanghai fell .64% and the Nikkei was off 1.4%.  Europe is off to a positive start with mid-day values up 1.4% for both the DAX and CAC-40, the FTSE is .76% higher.  Pre-market indications have the Dow 166 higher; the S&P is 23 ¾ to the plus side and the NAS is pointing to a 53 gain at the opening. Observers will be scrutinizing EU GDP #’s and housing data here in the U.S. today.  Externals find energy futures mostly higher; gold is $4.20 lower and the dollar index is off .054 at 85.17

·         T-Storm Weather: Little to no rainfall occurs in most U.S. growing areas through 7 to 10 days as areas of dry high pressure dominate, thereby improving conditions for harvesting and planting as the month progresses.  Temperatures average warmer to much-warmer than usual across the Plains (maximums oftentimes in the 70s) due to the close proximity of upper-level high pressure in the western U.S., while the Corn Belt averages near-usual (maximums in the 50s-60s) as cool fronts occasionally drop southward and prevent mildness from expanding

·         Dec Corn Up $.0050 at $3.5275; March Up $.0025 at $3.6550.   The funds bought 6 K on Thursday   

·         Nov SB Down $.0325 at $9.6325; Jan Down $.0375 at $9.7050.  Funds bought 7 K SB; bought 3 K SBM; sold 6 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0250 at $5.1950; March Up $.0175 at $5.3050  Funds bought an estimated 6 K yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM                          &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;           

·    &n​bsp;    Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 31 to 79mbu corn

·         T-storm Weather: Harvest is probable to remain sluggish for at least a few more days due to sharp increases in topsoil wetness recently; 63% of U.S. corn production was wetter than average over the last two weeks

·         Ethanol grind: 885 thou barrels per day for week end Oct. 10—down 16 thou vs. last week but up 1.8% vs. last year

·         December 2014 corn futures closed at $3.52 ¼ Thurs.; one year ago, December 2013 corn contract closed at $4.42 ¾

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 26 to 37mbu; soymeal, 200-400; soyoil, 15-30

·         T-storm Weather: Heat & dryness suppress soybean planting in Center-West/Southeast Brazil through at least Sunday

·         Nov. 2014 soybean futures closed at $9.66 ½ Thurs.; one year ago, the Nov. 2013 soybean contract closed at $12.76 ½

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT. Trade expects 13-20mbu for all wheat

·         T-storm Weather: 77% of U.S. SRW wheat production was wetter than average over the last two weeks

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly higher:  QCLX14,+$1.357 at $84.04; QRBX,+$0.0241; QNGX, -$.024; andQHOX, +$.0204

·         Cash ethanol markets were noticeably firmer on Thursday: Chicago gained 6 ½; Gulf and Dallas were up a nickel; New York jumped 7; Tampa added 4; and LA was 6 higher at $1.89 ½ per gallon

·         RINs eased a bit: 2013’s off  ¼ at 47 ½-48; 2014’s down 3/8 at 47 ½-48; and 2015’s were 3/8 lower at 47 ½-48 ¼

·         The November RBOB/Ethanol spread was off $.0168/gallon Thursday to $.4969

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​;                        ​         

·​;         After increasing $12.17 over the previous eight trading days, Choice boxed beef values fell $1.57 yesterday

·         Cash cattle have traded this week at mostly $164, about steady with last week’s record high

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value fell $3.22 yesterday after firming 14-cents on Wednesday

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.44 to $109.10. December futures dn $1.60 to $90.325 and are $18.775 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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