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Market Trend Corn, 1 Higher, Soybeans, 3 to 4 Higher, Wheat, Mostly 4 to 6 Lower

December 11, 2014 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 1 Higher; Soybeans, 3-4 Higher; Wheat, Mostly 4-6 Lower

·         Uneasiness over global economic health yesterday pushed the Dow to its largest drop in 2 months. “Correction” looming in the wings?  OPEC sees 2015 oil demand declining. Asia markets down ½ to 1% overnight; Europe recording .2% to .6% decline in CAC 40/FTSE; DAX, marginally higher at mid-day.  U.S. pre-markets called “mixed”—DOW futures up 25; NAS, 1.2 lower and the S&P, +3.  Externals:  $ Index, off .047 @ 88.49; gold is $6.30 cheaper at $1,222.60; energy futures exhibiting a modest recovery

·         T-Storm:  Maintains slightly favorable global corn weather outlook. S AM benefits from occasional storms but does cause some delay to later-planted Argentine corn.  Similar comments apply to Brazil/Paraguayan soybeans and Argentine planting.  Russian wheat area continues to lose moisture; some rains move into eastern Aussie wheat areas but miss the un-harvested portion

·         Dec Corn Up $.0125 at $3.8375; March Up $.01 at $3.9475.  Funds sold 3 K Wednesday

·         Jan SB Up $.04 at $10.36; March Up $.0375 at $10.4225.  Dely: 37 SBO.  Funds: sold 7 K SB;  5 K SBM and 2 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat, Up $.0150 at $5.9475; March Down $.0650 at $5.7525.  Dely: 19 KW.  The funds again sold 3 K yesterday

 

CORN/SORGHUM                  &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                   

·         December corn S&D kind of a non-event/kind of a surprise:  USDA lowers c/o by 10 (FSI); trade was expecting 10 higher (exports?); maintains $3.20-$3.80 producer price range. No changes to milo but adds $.05 to price forecast

·         Corn demand cometh:  USDA announces 7.4 mbu sale to Unknown ahead of WASDE release on Wednesday

·         Ethanol output the week of December 5 reaches a new record of 988 K bpd (11/21/14:  982 K)

·         Export Sales out at 7:30 CST:  corn expected at 31-39 mbu, versus 21.9 needed. Milo needs to average 1.2/week

·         T-storm Weather: above average rainfall expected across Brazil, Paraguay and much of Argentina

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA takes soy c/o down 40 on higher exports; trade was thinking only 20 lower; price range stays $9-$11/bu

·         Trade narrowly misses USDA wheat c/o estimate:  651 versus 654 for the latter; 2 MMT larger foreign supply

·         USDA boosts foreign wheat export estimate 3.1 MMT to 132.9 (133.8 LY); more Canadian/EU/FSU competition

·         Export Sales:  Soy Complex—SB, 26-37 versus 7.8/needed: SBM, 50-200 vs 112.8 needed; SBO, 15-30 vs 14.1 needed

·         Export Sales:   Wheat—9 to 17 expected and versus 12.1/week needed

·         T-Storm:  ½ to 1” possible for a portion of the U.S. HRW Central and Southern Plains beginning late this weekend

ENERGY

·         Futures are positive:  QCLF14, +$0.71 at $61.65; QRBF, +$0.0166; QNGF, +$.028; and QHOF, +$.0233

·         EIA stocks: crude, +1.5 (trade: -2.2/API: -2.2); Gasoline, +8.2 (+2.6/+6.7); Distillates, +5.6 (+0.9/+4.3)

·         With the exception of NY (+$.0975), cash ethanol markets were weaker:  Tampa fell 11; Dallas was off 9 and LA, 8 ½.  The Gulf retreated 4 ½ cents while Chicago’s slide was limited to 3 ½ cents

·         RINs were firmer:  2013’s up nearly 2 cents to 58 ½ -60 ½;  2014’s up 2 to 60-62 ½; and 2015’s rose 2+ to 59-61 ¾

·         The January RBOB/January ethanol continues to gyrate  as the spread went from +.0136 to -$.0332/gallon Thursday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                  &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;   

·     &nb​sp;   Tuesday, choice boxed beef values fell $0.56 to the lowest level since Nov. 11

·         The 6-state daily Weighted Average Steer price held steady at $167.32/cwt

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value lost $1.89 Wednesday and is $0.09 below a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index rose $0.16 to $88.51.  December futures gained $.325 to $87.275, $1.235 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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