HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Up $.01; SH, Up $.0125; WH, Down $.01; KWH, Steady
· Comment of the day: “the stock market priced in a recession, and we’re nowhere near one”. Basic commodities rally; most overseas equities follow Wall Street higher. Asia: Shanghai, +4.2%; Nikkei, +4.1%; Hang Seng, +3.1%. Mid-day Europe: FTSE, -.3%; CAC 40, +.21%; DAX, +.21%. U.S.pre-markets: DOW, -32; S&P, -4; NAS, -5. Externals: the $ Index is up .085 @ 98.45; Gold is $1.30 weaker at $1,229 and April crude is off 72 cents at $33.68
· T-storm Weather: Dissipating cool fronts trigger rain in varying areas of Brazil each day through two weeks, especially in central and northern areas where above-normal totals are likely. Rain and cooler weather also occur to the south, though near-normal totals are most probable. In the U.S., widespread coverage of record-setting mildness occurs within March 5-11 as maximums soar into the 50s-60s-70s-80s across a large area. Unlike the sustained period of above-normal warmth in March 2012 that was driven by a stagnant upper-level high, upcoming warmth will be driven by a long and sustained feed of air from the tropics due to a large system in the West. The pattern culminates in widespread rain later next week, especially the Corn Belt and Delta
· CH, Up $.01 @ $3.5475; CK, Up $.0075 @ $3.5650 The funds sold 5 K. 0 deliveries
· SH, Up $.0125 @ $8.52; SK, Up $.01 @ $8.59. Funds: sold 4 K SB, 5 SBO, 2 SBM. Del’y: 258 SB, 141 SBM, 166 SBO
· WH, Down $.01 @ $4.3750; WK, Steady @ $4.46 The funds dold 5 K. Del’y: 525 SRW, 6 HRW
CORN/SORGHUM     ;
·; ATI Research: If there is a bias on U.S. corn exports, it is that ATI’s 1.625 bbu forecast is on the high side
· Consultant: Early corn harvest in Argentina is underway and yields are generally better than expected. Later planted corn in the north-central and south-central region is entering critical reproductive phase generally in good condition
· T-storm Weather: Upcoming warmth in the U.S. marks a furthering of the mild autumn and winter – winter was unofficially #5 warmest in 121 years across the Corn Belt, while autumn-winter was #3 warmest
· Ethanol margins: $0.16 per gallon—up from $0.14 last week but below $0.44 last year. EIA report at 9:30 a.m. CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Soybean export forecast for 16/17 of 1.825 bbu from USDA Ag Outlook Forum looks overly optimistic
· Consultant: Weather for Argentina soybeans still generally beneficial; crop estimate increased 1.0 MMT to 60 million
· T-storm Weather: Rain next 10 days across Center-West, Brazil to range from 2.25”-4.50”; may slow soybean harvest
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to average 10-15 mbu per week through March vs. 17.6 mil last year
· T-storm Weather: Major rain event for central U.S. March 8-11; 0.50”-1.50” for HRW wheat in central, southern Plains
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLJ16, -$0.72, $33.68; EBK, -$0.35; EBK-CLK, +$0.91, +$.25; RBJ, +$.0034; NGJ, -0.038; HOJ -$.0013
· EIA estimates: crude, +2.6 (API: +9.9); Gasoline, -1.5 (-2.2); Distillates, -1.3 (+2.7)
· A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago slipped 1 5/8; New York down 1 ¾; Gulf slid 3; Dallas off 1 ½; Tampa eased 1; and LA was 1 ¾ lower at $1.49 ¾ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s eased ½ to 73 ½-74 ½; 2015’s off 3/8 to 73 ½-74 ½; and 2016’s down ¼ at 73 ¾-74 ¾
· The April RBOB/March Ethanol inverse settled at -$.0645/gal on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values increased 99-cents on Tuesday, and at $218.15 are $3.01 higher vs. last week
· Cash cattle trading was extremely quiet Tuesday with asking prices of $140-$142 in the South and $220 in the North
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 23-cents on Tuesday, and at $74.57 is 56-cents lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index unchanged at $66.76. April futures were $0.425 higher and are $3.64 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather