HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Down $.0050; SF, Up $.0050; WH, Down $.0150; KWH, Down $.0050
· The Fed meeting kicks off today; the CPI and Empire Mfg Index are out this morning; oil is higher and an interest rate hike is expected. Asia closed lower overnight, no particular reasons given: Nikkei, -1.68%; Shanghai, -.28%; Hang Seng, -.17%. The EU registers 13.7% more cars in November; 27th straight monthly increase; FTSE, +1.61%; DAX, +2.1%; CAC 40, +2.29%. Futures look positive in the U.S.: DOW, +152; NAS, +32 ¼; S&P, +17. Oil is up a ½ $; gold is $1 weaker and the $ Index, -.123 @ 97.53
· T-storm Weather: A series of storm systems focus heavy rain on southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next 10 days, continuing the wettest November-to-December open in decades. Isolated thunderstorms also continue to the north, most likely followed by better thunderstorm coverage from this weekend forward. Despite upcoming thunderstorms, only near- or below-normal totals are expected over the next 10 days in the north, which is probably not ideal since northern soybean areas of Brazil were #2 driest over Nov. 1 to Dec. 13 since 2000 (only slightly wetter than in 2002)
· CH, Down $.0050 @ $3.7850; CK, Down $.0050 @ $3.8375. The funds began the week buying 5 K
· SF, Up $.0050 @ $8.7475; SH, Up $.0075 @ $8.7675. Funds: bought 3 K SB; 2 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO
· WH, Down $.0150 @ $4.92; WK, Down$.0175 @ $4.9750 The funds bought 3 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM      
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 1.808 bbu; 16/17 carry-out steady at 1.642 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 52 mbu; 16/17 carry-out steady at 58 mbu
· ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 corn reported under loan as of Dec. 14 was 419.1 mbu. This is up 100.9 mbu (32%) from the 318.2 mbu of 2014/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. corn exports of 308 mbu are down 23% vs. last year’s 401 mbu. This continues to be the slowest year-to-date pace of exports in 3 years
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 485 mbu; 16/17 carry-out at 343 mbu
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. soybean exports of 852 mbu are down 10% from last year’s 942 mbu total
· ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 soybeans reported under loan as of Dec. 14 was 84.1 mbu. This is up 28.6 mbu (52%) from the 55.5 mbu of 2014/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. wheat exports of 403 mbu are down 14% from last year’s 471 mbu total
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout at 275 mbu vs. 212 million for 14/15
· T-storm Weather: A total of 86% of U.S. HRW wheat was wetter than normal over the last 60 days
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLF16, +$0.54, $36.85; EBF, +$0.70; EBF-CLF, $1.76, +$.15; RBF, -$.0158; NGF, -$.025; HOF, +$.0307
· Slight declines were noted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down ¼; New York, Tampa and Dallas eased ½; Gulf down 1 ¾; and LA was 3 lower $1.52 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 3 1/8 to 71 ¼ -76 ¾; 2015’s added 3 ½ to 71-76; & 2016’s gained 3 ½ to 71-76
· The Jan RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse increased $.0267 on Monday to -$2002 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef plummeted $3.72 and at $198.78, are the lowest for calendar year 2015
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $5.24 last week to $118.15/cwt and is $44.23 lower vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 45-cents and is 95-cents higher compared to a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.42 lower at $55.98. February futures down $0.425 but are $4.145 above the index