HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CK Up $.0150; Soybeans, SK Flat; Wheat, WK Up $.02, KWK Down $.0050
· Q1 growth estimates out this morning with a decline from Q4’s 2.2% pace to 1% expected—tough winter weather and dollar’s strength limiting export demand. Fed statement this afternoon may give some direction on future interest rate policy. Asia was ill-defined: Nikkei, +.38%; Shanghai, +.01% and the Hang Seng, -.15%. Europe is weaker this morning: DAX, -.01%; FTSE, -.13% and the CAC 40, -.21%. U.S. futures are also a little weaker: DOW, -11; NAS, -7 ½; S&P500, -1.50. Externals find the energy complex lower; gold is $7.60 weaker at $1,206 and the $ Index is .144 lower at 96.475
· T-storm Weather: Temperatures turn sharply milder from west to east over the next five days. Mild to unseasonably-mild weather then dominates through at least mid-May, preventing coolness from being a limiting factor for planting and / or growth. A few showers occur throughSaturday, but the best chance for notable rainfall holds until Sunday-Monday when a cool front triggers widely scattered thunderstorms across the Corn Belt. Higher rain chances follow in all areas from next Tuesday forward as a system (or a series of systems) ride mildness into the central U.S. and produce areas of rain and thunderstorms
· May Corn Up $.0150 at $3.625;0 July Up $.0125 at $3.6575. Fund sales totaled 3 K on Tuesday
· May SB Steady at $9.7750; July Down $.0075 at $9.50 The Funds bought 3 K SB; 3 K SBM and sold 5 K SBO
· May Wheat Up $.02 at $4.7350; July Up $.0275 at $4.79 The funds were even inTuesday’s trading
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of near- and above-average rainfall is most probable over May 4-10, slowing corn planting but increasing soil moisture
· ATI Research: U.S. corn planting progress for the week ending May 3 was 28% last year and the 5-year average is 38%. Corn emergence for the same period last year was 6% and the 5-year average is 12%
· ATI Research: Near-term weekly U.S. export forecasts—corn, 35-40 mbu; sorghum, 4-6 mbu
· Ethanol margins: $0.55 per gallon, up vs. $0.46 last week but below $0.92 last year. EIA report at9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean planting progress for week ending May 3 was 5% last year and the 5-year average is 9%.
· ATI Research: Expect near-term weekly U.S. soybean exports to average near 8 mbu
· Private crop consultant: Argentina soybean yields are “off the charts” so crop estimate may increase further
· CBT May wheat traded $4.60 on Tues.--lowest price for a nearby contract since June 30, 2010—but closed up $.0125
· T-storm Weather: Near- to above-average rain May 5-8; 1.00”+ most likely in central/southern Plains and Corn Belt
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat exports projected to average 15-20 mbu over the next 4 weeks vs. 21.1 last year
ENERGY
· Lower:CLM15, -$0.37 to $56.68; EBM, -$0.20 to $64.44; EBM-CLM, +7.76, RBM, -$.0152; NGM, -$.015; HOM, -$.0073
· EIA estimates: crude, +2.8 (API: +4.2); Gasoline, +0.3 (+0.4); Distillates, +0.8 (+0.7)
· Cash ethanol markets were steady to higher on Tuesday: Chicago, New York and Gulf up 2 ½; Tampa unchanged; Dallas up 1 ¾; and LA was unchanged at $1.78 ½ per gallon
· Mixed trend in RINs: 2013’s up 1/8 to 72 ¾-73 ½; 2014’s down 1/8 to 73 ¾-75 ½; and 2015’s climbed ¼ to 71 ¾-73
· The June RBOB/June Ethanol spread narrowed nearly 3 cents to $.3892 Tuesday & another 2 ¼ this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·  Choice boxed beef values were up 83-cents on Tuesday but are $2.10 lower compared to a week ago
· Daily estimated cattle slaughter on Tuesday was 115,000 vs. 110,000 a week ago and 121,000 last year
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 30-cents higher on Tuesday and is the highest since Feb. 24
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.66 to $66.49. May futures $1.475 higher at $73.75 and are $7.26 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather