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Market Corn, Up 1 to 2, Soybeans, Up 4 to 5, Wheat, Up 1

January 7, 2015 07:21 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, Up 1-2; Soybeans, Up 4-5;  Wheat, Up ½-1

·         Overseas equity markets are unanimously higher this morning, sort of.  Asia had the Nikkei up .01%; Shanghai gained .69% and the Hang Seng, +.83%.  Mid-day trade in Europe shows a 1.19% increase in the CAC 40; the DAX is 1.15% higher and the FTSE, up .93%. Release of the Federal Reserve’s December minutes will be a point of interest regarding implications for interest rates and early-on, the market will focus on ADP’s employment #’s. Pre-market indicators:  DOW, +100; S&P, +13 ¼ and the NAS, +24.    Outside markets show gold off $7.90; oil is slightly higher and the dollar is firmer against the euro.

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure limits thunderstorm coverage and induces above-average warmth across Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the next 10 days; most of the region is probable to receive less than one-half of its average through the period.  The setup causes a parade of systems to flow across Argentina through 10 days, causing numerous thunderstorm clusters to focus on key central growing areas; 3.50" to 5.50" occurs, compared to an average of around 1.50".  The potential exists for pockets of excessive wetness to develop from this area into South Brazil

·         Mar Corn Up $.0175 at $4.0675; May Up $.02 at $4.1550.  Del’y:  49 ethanol.  The funds ended the day even

·         Jan SB Up $.0425 at $10.5525; May Up $.0475 at $10.6050.   Del’y: SB, 0; SBO, 200.  Funds: bought 5 K SB; 2 K SBM; even on SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.0050 at $5.9225; May up $.01 at $5.97.  The funds bought 4 K on Tuesday

CORN/SORGHUM                                      ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;

·         ATI Research: Outlook for U.S. corn exports is guarded.  Recent inspections of approximately 28 mbu per week are 8-10 million below last year with some gradual improvement expected

·         T-storm Weather: Some Argentina corn too wet last 30 days in/adjacent to N. Santa Fe where surpluses exceed 8.00”

·         Private crop consultant: Argentina corn planting is approximately 80% complete; some dryness concern in the South

·         Ethanol margins: $0.39 per gallon vs. $0.71 a week ago well below $0.86 last year.  EIA report at9:30 AM CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. unshipped export sales of soybeans are now lagging about 100 mbu below a year ago at this time

·         Private crop consultant: Drying trend for soybeans in central and northeastern Brazil is notable

·         T-storm Weather: A round of rain would be ideal for soybeans in Center-West Brazil

·         ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat export sales the last 4 weeks are a 6-year low and 28% below the 10-year average

·         T-storm Weather: Patchy winterkill remains plausible in southern SRW wheat areas of Corn BeltThursday morning

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed: QCLG15, +$0.09 at $48.26; QRBG, -$0.0077; QNGG, +$.023; and QHOG, -$.0199

·         EIA estimates:  crude, +0.3 (API: -4.0); Gasoline, +3.2 (+6.9); Distillates, +2.3 (+9.1)

·         Cash ethanol markets were lower on Tuesday with significant declines noted in some locations: Chicago off 8 ¼; New York down 9 ½; Gulf eased 7; Tampa slid 11 ½; Dallas dropped 10; and LA was 6 ½ lower at $1.65 ½ per gallon

·         Sharp gains in RINs: 2013’s added 7 to 85-90; 2014’s up 7 to 86-91; and 2015’s jumped 7 to 85-90

·         The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol spread eased somewhat with the inversion losing $.0258 to -$.1159 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                       &nb​sp;                      

·         Choice boxed beef values were 97-cents higher on Tuesday compared to  Monday

·         Cash cattle trading was surprisingly active Tues. with prices as much as $3-$4 higher vs. last week at $170 in the South

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value down 67-cents Tues., is $3.95 below last week & at lowest level since April 16, 2013

·         CME Lean Hog Index 12-cents lower at $77.79.  February futures down $1.35 to $78.575 and $0.785 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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