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Corn, Down 3 to 4, Soybeans, Mixed Wheat, Down 3- to 4

June 30, 2014 07:14 AM

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Down 3-4; Soybeans, Mixed;  Wheat, Down 3-4

·         U.S. stocks futures are a little weaker this morning.  Dow futures are 12 lower; the S&P is off 1.50 and the Nasdaq, a ¼ point lower.  Asia began the week generally higher:  the Nikkei gained .44%; the Hang Seng lost .13% and the Shanghai Composite posted a .59% increase.  Europe finds 2 out of 3 of the major markets lower:  the FTSE and the CAC 40 are off .04% and .40%; the DAX is .17% to the plus side.  Europe’s gains were attributed to further ECB stimulus measures as consumer price inflation slowed to .5% in May, well below the 2% target rate.  U.S. news is light this morning.  The $ Index is .026 lower at 80.06; gold is $6.40 lower and energy futures are mixed

·         T-Storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms affect the southeast half of the central U.S. through today as a strong cool front approaches; heavy rainfall of 1.00”-2.00” focuses on parts of IL, IA and MO, while scattered 0.50”-1.00” occur to the south and east (slowing HRW and SRW wheat harvesting).  Thereafter, a period of mainly dry weather occurs as cool high pressure dominates, though a few showers dot northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains Tuesday-Wednesday.  The Corn Belt is forecast to be cooler than usualJuly 1-5 with maximums generally in the 70s and minimums in the 50s.

·         July Corn Down $.0325 at $4.3975; September Down $.0475 at $4.3750.  Deliveries:  3 (4/21). Funds bought 4 K Friday

·         July Soybeans Up $.0050; August Up $.03 at $13.8125.  Deliveries, 0 SB, 0 SBM, 1,814 SBO.  Funds: sold 7 K SB; bought 4 K SBM and sold 4 K SBO 

·         July Wheat Down $.0375 at $5.815-; September Down $.04 at $5.8975.  Deliveries, 71 SRW (4/29).  The funds bought 3 K Friday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         USDA Acreage report 11:00 CDT--Avg. guess, corn acres 91.7 million acres vs. 91.7 in March (range 91.0-92.5)

·         USDA Grain Stocks report 11:00 CDT—Avg. guess June 1 corn stocks, 3.723Bbu vs. 2.766 last year (range 3.046-4.050)

·         ATI Research: USDA Crop Progress likely to show U.S. corn crop Good/Excellent 72-74% vs. 74% last week, 67% last yr.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 44.5 needed; 38.9 last week.  Milo—4.0 needed; 2.4 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Acreage report--Avg. guess, soybean acres 82.2 million vs. 81.5 in March (range 81.3-84.0)

·         USDA Grain Stocks report—Avg. guess June 1 soybean stocks, 382mbu vs. 435 last year (range 334-440)

·         ATI Research: Crop Progress likely to show U.S. soybean crop Good/Excellent 70-72% vs. 72% last week, 67% last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 3.7 needed; 2.3 last week

·         USDA Acreage report--Avg. guess, other spring wheat acres 11.9 million vs. 12.0 in March (range 11.2-12.2)

·         USDA Grain Stocks report—Avg. guess June 1 all wheat stocks, 597mbu vs. 718 last year (range 561-633)

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed:  QCLQ14, -$.45 at $105.29; QRBQ, -$0.0149; QNGQ, $.000; and QHOQ, -$.0186

·         Cash ethanol markets were slightly higher on Friday: Chicago climbed 1; Gulf gained 1 ½; Tampa and Dallas added ½; New York was 3 higher; and LA was up ½ to $2.48 per gallon

·         Firmer trend in RINs: 2012’s gained 1 ¼ to 54-55 ½; 2013’s up 1 to 54 ½-55 ½; and 2014’s added 1 ¼ to 54 ½-55 ½

·         The July RBOB/July ethanol spread was little changed on Friday, up $.0062 at $0.9698/gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                       ​                    

·         Choice boxed beef values gained 97-cents Friday to a third consecutive daily record high of $245.98

·         Cash cattle traded Friday at $154 to $155, up about $5 from the week before

·         After falling $1.21 on Thursday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value rebounded $36-cents Friday

·         USDA Hogs & Pigs report showed June 1 hog herd at 95% of last year, breeding herd at 100%

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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