HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly higher: CN, +$.03; SN, -$.0025; WN, +$.0225; KWN, +$.0275 
• What caught my eye: Corn market responding overnight to above normal rainfall forecast for most of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks.  Del’y: SBM, 195; SBO, 477; RR, 265; C, 689; O, 141; SB, 451; SRW, 826
• Treading water ahead of the release of the Fed Minutes.  Asia: On holiday--Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, closed.  EUROPE: Mostly closed—DAX, closed; FTSE, closed; CAC, closed.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher --DOW, +77; S&P, +9.00; NAS, +55.00.  EXTERNALS: June crude: -$0.20 @ $63.71; Gold:  -$1.20 @ $1,285; $ Index: -0.221 @ 96.300
• T-storm Weather: Through Thursday, a large system and its smaller-scale waves of energy produce widespread coverage of moderate to heavy rain across the southeast half to two-thirds of the central U.S., while light showers affect the northwest third.  Then, scattered showers affect varying areas Thu.-Fri. as several small scale waves pass and interact with limited humidity; most likely wettest in the Delta and southeast Corn Belt
• CN, up $.03 @ $3.6550; CU, up $.0250 @ $3.73.  The funds were again estimated to be even in Tuesday’s trading    
• SN, dn $.0025 @ $8.5375; SQ, unch @ $8.60.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 1 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.13, 0; LY, $1.69
• WN, up $.0250 @ $4.3125; WUN, up $.0150 @ $4.3925.  The funds followed up an 8 K sale on Monday with 6 more yesterday   

CORN/SORGHUM

• ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approx. 19% from April 28-May 5 to 46%
• T-storm Weather: The setup is favorable for another widespread rain starting/resuming May 6-7 & continuing for at least several days; 1.00”-3.00” to affect southern two-thirds of the U.S. Corn Belt, Delta, & central & southern Plains

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop est. unch at 48.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias; last year’s crop was 32.0

• Ethanol margins: $0.15 per gallon—down from $0.17 last week and below $0.28 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting progress increases approx. 8% from April 28-May 5 to 14%
• T-storm Weather: The setup is favorable for another widespread rain starting/resuming May 6-7 & continuing for at least several days; 1.00”-3.00” to affect southern two-thirds of the U.S. Corn Belt, Delta, & central & southern Plains

·       ATI Research: 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat planting progress increases approx. 16% from April 28-May 5 to 49%

• T-storm Weather: Forecasted rain through Thursday is 0.20”-0.50” for most U.S. spring wheat in the northern Plains

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLM19, -$0.20 @ $63.71; EBN, +0.12 @ $72.18; EBN-QCLN, +.27; RBM, +.0135; NGM, -.002; HOM, +.0061

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +1.5 (+6.8); Gasoline, -1.0 (-1.1); Distillates, -0.2 (-2.1).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.036 mbpd (range: 1.025-1.047).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.868 mb (range 22.700-23.087)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0160 weaker yesterday at $1.3240; basis values were again mixed: New York, -$.0090 @ $.1060; Gulf, -$.0040 @ $.1010; Dallas, +$.01850 @ $.09350; Tampa, +$.00850 @ $.17850; LA, +$.0110 @ $.3460  

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed:  2018’s, +1/2 @ 10-12; 2019’s, -.25 @ 16 ½ -17                                      ​;                     

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·       The June RBOB/May ethanol spread was $.0564 wider yesterday at+$.80320/gal     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &n​bsp;                  &nb​sp;         

• Cho​ice boxed beef declined $1.30 on Tuesday to $231.84, and is $2.27 lower versus a week ago
• A few token cash cattle bids were seen on Tuesday afternoon at $122 to $123 live basis through the South

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.39 on Tue. to $80.88, and is $6.19 lower compared to last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.19 on Tue. to $83.27.  May futures declined $0.475 but are still $1.03 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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