HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CU, +$.0325; SU, +$.0825; WU, -$.1150; KWU, -$.0250. Dely: SM, 611; BO, 58; RR, 410; C, 400; HRW, 1 K; SB, 866; SRW, 440
• What caught my eye: SON producer corn prices are likely to average $.35-$.40 per bushel higher this fall; typically 30% or so is sold the 1^stquarter; with a late harvest and an MFP payment in their pockets, will they be inclined to sell more, or less this year?

·      Trade talks yesterday, more scheduled; stock futures respond favorably.  ASIA: Mostly firm-Nikkei, +1.19%; Shanghai, -0.16%; Hang Seng, +0.08%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.99%; FTSE, +0.59%; CAC, +0.85%.  WALL STREET—Futures are Higher-- DOW, +168; S&P, +18; NAS, +49.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude:-$0.60 @ $56.11; Gold:  -$2.30 @ $1,535; $ Index: +.030 @ 98.53

·      T-storm Weather®: U.S. temperatures fluctuate but generally remain cool over the next two weeks, lengthening filling, but not producing a killing freeze.  The rainfall forecast is complex, but is most likely to include below-normal rainfall in southern corn and soybean areas through the period, while some thunderstorms affect northern areas next week and beyond, while a swath of significant totals probably unfolds from the central Plains into parts of / near IA, MO, and IL over today-Sunday

• CU, up $.0325 @ $3.63; CZ, up $.0120 @ $3.7375.  More fund buying related to a possible ethanol announcement, 3 K      
• SU, up $.0825 @ $8.6450; SX, up $.08 @ $8.77.  Funds: Bot 3 K SB, 1 K SBOM, sold 1 K SBM.  Board Crush: $1.03, 0; LY, $1.50
• WU, dn $.1150 @ $4.5825; WZ, dn $.0550 @ $4.6725.  Fund sales on Thursday estimated at 2 K                      

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather®: Southern U.S. corn fairly dry next 10 days, while northern & central areas receive rain.   Significant rain near-term from KS-NE & points northeast through/near northern IL; Corn Belt, 0.50”-1.00”; Plains, 1.00”-3.00”

·      ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop corn as of Aug. 22 were 280 mbu, which is 53% lower compared to last year and is down 21% versus two years ago

• The National Weather Service on Aug. 31 will release its updated U.S. forecast for the month of September
• Consultant: Argentina corn production is estimated at 49.0 MMT with a maximum of 50.0 and a minimum of 48.0

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• T-storm Weather®: A killing freeze (lows of 28°F / -2°C or colder) is not foreseen for U.S. soybeans the next 2 weeks
• ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop soybeans as of Aug. 22 were 343 mbu, which is 44% lower compared to last year and is down 38% versus two years ago

·      T-storm Weather®: Heavy rains over the next 7 to 10 days aid wheat Western Australia, but remain limited in drought-stricken areas to the east

• ATI Research: Unshipped export sales of U.S. wheat as of Aug. 22 were 191 mbu; up 20% vs. 2018 & 2% vs. 5-year avg.

ENERGY

·      Lower: CLV19, -$0.60 @ $56.11; EBV, -$0.08 @ $61.00; EBV-QCLV, +.52; RBV,-.0108; NGV, -.017; HOV, -.0025

·      Chicago ethanol was sharply higher, up $.04475 Thursday; basis values were lower: NYC, -$.02475 @ $.10650; Gulf, -$.03225 @ $.0590; Dallas, -$.03475 @ $.06650; Tampa, -$.02975 @ $.15150; LA, -$.03975 @ $.15150

·      Ethanol RINs were steady with 2018’s holding at @ 7 ½ -9 and 2019’s at @ 15 -15 ½                           &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                       

·   ​   The September RBOB/September ethanol spread shed $.0087 on Thursday to $.3447/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   ​                     ​

• Choice boxed beef was 77-cents lower on Thursday at $232.19 and is down $7.09 versus a week ago
• Light cash cattle trade noted on Thu. in Nebraska; dressed prices at $170 per cwt—generally $5 lower than last week

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 32-cents on Thursday to $70.76 & is $8.32 lower versus last week  

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $1.39 lower on Thu. at $71.24.  August futures gained $1.400 but are $6.34 below the index                                           ​; 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather