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TRENDS Higher CN, Up 15, SN, Up 30, WN, Up 14

May 29, 2019 10:33 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Higher: CN, $.1575; SN, +$.3050; WN, +$.1450; KWN, +$.1650 
  • What caught my eye: Combined corn and soybean acres still left to plant are 96.3 million, over 2 ½ times the average of 36.7 million acres
  • Worries about global economic growth intensify, markets called lower.  Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, -1.21%; Shanghai, +0.16%; Hang Seng, -0.69%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.25%; FTSE, -1.33%; CAC, -1.72%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower--DOW, -157; S&P, -17.--5; NAS, -60.25.  EXTERNALS: July crude: -$1.20 @ $57.94; Gold:  +$5.00 @ $1,282; $ Index+.03 @ 97.980
  • T-storm Weather: A large system drifts across the central Plains & Corn Belt & triggers scattered thunderstorms through Friday (ending Wed. west and Thu.-Fri. east), producing 1.00” to 2.00” within the middle half of the central U.S., and only excluding CO, the Delta, MT, ND, northern MN, and western areas of KS-OK-TX.  A new pattern follows with the likely result being near-normal rain to affect most areas over the first 1-2 weeks of June, as compared to sharply above-normal & record-setting rains in May
  • CN, up $.1575 @ $4.36; CU, up $.1575 @ $4.4525.  Heavy fund buying on Tuesday, estimated at 45 thousand             
  • SN, up $.3050 @ $8.8650; SQ, up $.3025 @ $8.93.  Funds: Bot-- 15 SB, 12 SBM, 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.32, +4; LY, $1.49
  • WN, up $.1450 @ $5.1925; WU, up $.14 @ $5.26.  The funds opened the week buying 10 K    

CORN/SORGHUM

  • USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of May 26 at 58% vs. 90% last year and the 5-year average of 90%
  • T-storm Weather: Weaker jet stream forms Fri.-Sat. forward, ending onslaught of large systems that have left crops saturated; less rain results, but near-normal totals (0.50”-1.50”) occur June 1-7 in central/southern Plains & Corn Belt
  • Consultant: Brazil corn crop is increased 1.0 MMT to 98.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward
  • ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are estimated at 2.310 bbu compared to the latest USDA forecast of 2.095 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of May 26 at 29% vs. 74% last year and the 5-year average of 66%
  • T-storm Weather: Weaker jet stream forms Fri.-Sat. forward, ending onslaught of large systems that have left crops saturated; less rain results, but near-normal totals (0.50”-1.50”) occur June 1-7 in central/southern Plains & Corn Belt

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is unch at 117.0 MMT with a neutral to maybe slightly higher bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent is down 5% at 61% with the model est. the 2019 winter wheat crop @ 1.292 bbu

·       USDA estimates U.S. spring wheat planting progress as of May 26 at 84% vs. 89% last year and the 5-year avg. of 91%

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLN19-$1.20 @ $57.94; EBN, -$1.33 @ $68.78; EBN-QCLN-.13; RBN, -.0327; NGN, +.038HON, -.0274

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0850 higher yesterday, at $1.4675; basis values were mostly weaker: New York, +$.0225 @ $.1075; Gulf, -$.00250 @ $.08; Dallas, -$.03 @ $.0575; Tampa, -$.04 @ $.1725; LA, -$.0550 @ $.23250  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -.125 @ 9 -10; 2019’s, -.25 @ 13 ½ - 13 3/4                                     &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;        

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread narrowed $.0618 Tuesday to +$.4757/gal

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &nb​sp;                

  • Choice boxed beef increased $1.65 on Tuesday to $223.29 and is up $1.84 higher compared to a week ago 
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $0.87 v. last week at $1115.78/cwt, but is up $5.72 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $2.99 on Tuesday to $84.95 but is still down 18-cents vs. last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $56.91/cwt vs. last week’s $62.21, last month’s $69.22 & last year’s $40.74 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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