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MARKET TREND Up CN, Up 3, SN, Up 2, WN, Up 7

June 29, 2018 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Up: CN, +$.0275; SN, +$.0225; WN, +$.07; KWN, +$.0525. USDAAcreage, Grain Stocks reports 11:00am CDT
  • MACRO:  Follow through from Thursday(?), in spite of lingering trade concerns; personal income for May and June consumer sentiment data out today.  Asia—Firm: Nikkei, +0.15%; Shanghai, +2.20%; Hang Seng, +1.61%.  EUROPE: Higher:  DAX,+1.06%; FTSE, +0.80%; CAC, +1.22%.  WALL STREET: Happy Friday--Futures: DOW,+138; S&P, +11.25; NAS, +36.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: -$0.07 @ $73.38; Aug Gold: +$1.40 @ $1,252; Dec $ Index, -.591 @ 94.060

·       T-storm Weather: Isolated thunderstorms affect Corn Belt today as heat expands.  Heat then continues for 7-10 days in southern areas, but briefly breaks for two days in northern areas of Corn Belt & Plains Sat.-Sun.  Organized thunderstorms accompany cooler temps, producing 1.00" to 2.00" in northern areas through the weekend.  Heat dominates next week as temps average +6F to +12F from normal from moderately above-normal daytime highs, and far above-normal minimums in the mid-70s to 80F

·       CN, up $.0275 @ $3.4775; CU, up $.0275 @ $3.57.  Heavy pre-report liquidation with 20 K sold                     

  • SN, up $.0225 @ $8.6350; SQ, up $.01 @ $8.6775.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 1 SBM; bot 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.87, +$.01; LY: $.89
  • WN, up $.07 @ $4.8650; WU, up $.0375 @ $4.8725.  The funds were sellers on Thursday, a total of 5 K                    

    CORN/SORGHUM

·      &nb​sp;USDA reports 11:00 am CDT: Trade est. U.S. corn acres, 88.35 mil (88.03 in March); June 1 corn stocks est. 5.276 bbu

  • ATI Research: U.S. 17/18 corn export sales of 33.5 mbu for week end June 21 were 5 times larger than the prior week & up 16% v. the 4-week avg.  Unshipped 17/18 sales of 535 mbu are up 48% v. 16/17 & a record for this time of year
  • T-storm Weather: The longevity of heat across U.S. corn areas is debatable, but a cool front will attempt to pass around July 8.  Some thunderstorms accompany heat & cooling over July 2-12, but we are not forecasting heavy rain

·       July 2018 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.45—lowest settlement price for nearby corn futures since Dec. 14, 2017  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA reports: Trade est. U.S. soybean acres at 89.68 mil (88.98 in March); June 1 bean stocks est. 1.204 bbu

  • ATI Research: U.S. 17/18 soybean export sales of 13.2 mbu for week end June 21 were up 19% vs. the prior week & up 14% vs. the prior 4-week avg.  Unshipped 17/18 sales of 298 mbu are up 20% v. 16/17 & a record for this time of year
  • USDA reports: Trade est. U.S. wheat acres at 47.15 mil (47.34 in March); June 1 wheat stocks est. 1.101 bbu
  • ATI Research: Unshipped all wheat export sales as of June 21 were just 164 mbu—dn 24% v. last year & a 9-year low

·       T-storm Weather: Periods of rain and cool temperatures are forecast for at least 7 days for spring wheat in Canada

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLQ18-$.07 @ $73.38; EBQ, +$1.38 @ $79.23; EBQ-QCLQ, +$1.42RBQ, +.0297NGQ, -.001HOQ, +.0236

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.41275, down $0.00125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.1375; Gulf, +$0.0925; Dallas, +$0.0825; Tampa, +$0.2225; and LA, +$0.2575 

·       Ethanol RINs declined on Thursday: 2017’s down ½ to 16-17 ½; and 2018’s eased 1/8 to 24-24 ¾

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread was only slightly narrower yesterday, $.0027 to+$.7159/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &n​bsp;    

  • Choice boxed beef values declined $2.06 on Thursday to $213.24 and are down $4.17 compared to a week ago
  • Dressed steer weight for week end June 16: 856 lbs, up 5 lbs v. last week, 849 for the 4-week avg. & 855 last year
  • Hogs and Pigs: All hogs & pigs, 103.4% (103.0% avg. est); breeding, 103.4% (101.7%); market, 103.4% (103.1%)
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 31-cents on Thu. to $86.90 and is $2.60 higher vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.50 on Wed. to $84.32.  July futures increased $0.90 but are still $3.195 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

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