Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—No overnight trading due to the  Christmas holiday.  Steady bias on this morning’s opening 

·       What caught my eye: China’s state-owned trading group, COFCO, along with energy giant Shell Oil are said to be heavily investing in Brazil’s corn-based ethanol production capacity.  Implications for U.S. ethanol exports to China in “Phase I”?

·       Futures point to another up day on Wall Street.  Asia: Firm: Nikkei, +0.60%; Shanghai, +0.85%; Hang Seng, Closed; EUROPE: Slightly firm—DAX, Closed; FTSE, +0.11%; CAC, unch.  WALL STREET Futures—Firm—DOW, +37; S&P, +5.25; NAS, +12.00.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$.20 @ $61.31; Gold: +$4.10 @ $1,509; $ Index, +.072 @ 97.704

·       T-storm Weather®: numerous thunderstorms ease drought on corn, soybeans, & sunflowers in Argentina over the next two weeks, especially this weekend & next week.  47% & 51% of first-crop corn and soybeans in Brazil were drier than normal over the last 30 days from a lack of rain in Mato Grosso, Rio Grande do Sul, & in / near Bahia.  Heavy rain likely breaks dryness in Mato Grosso & Bahia from Jan. 1-2 forward, but rains likely remains below normal in Rio Grande do Sul through two weeks.

• CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.8750 Tue; CK, dn $.01 @ $3.9425.  The funds sold 2 K ahead of the Christmas holiday      
• SF, up $.0250 @ $9.3650 Tue; SH, up $.0250 @ $9.4475.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 1 SBM & even SBO.  Board crush: $1.00, -1; LY, $.97,-3;
• WH, up $.0150 @ $5.41 Tue, WK, up $.01 @ $5.4475.  The funds reversed course, buying 2 K in Tuesday’s abbreviated session       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 corn crop est. is steady at 47.5 MMT with a neutral to lower bias.  While the longer-range forecast is for some improvement in rain, it’s uncertain if it will be enough to fully re-charge soil moisture

·       T-storm Weather®: some light rain and snow affects the Dakotas and MN today as a weak system skirts the northern U.S., while drying continues elsewhere

• Some expect Ukraine corn exports in December to hit 4.5 MMT, a record for the month & up nearly 40% year to year
• The Weekly Petroleum Status Report will be released on Friday, December 27

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production est. is unchanged at 123.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward.  Weather has generally been good for beans, but dryness is an increasing concern in northeastern Brazil

·       T-storm Weather®: several thunderstorm clusters develop over Dec. 27 - Jan. 5 in Argentina, producing above-normal rainfall of 1.50” to 3.00” across a wide area, quickly diminishing topsoil and subsoil dryness in most soybeans

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 12-16 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread and substantial rainfall affects most U.S. HRW and SRW wheat Friday-Sunday.  Heaviest amounts (0.75”-1.50”) are forecast for Midwest SRW, while 0.50”-1.00” impact Southern Plains HRW  

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLG20, +$0.20 @ $61.31; EBG, +$0.30 @ $67.50; EBG-QCLG, +.10; RBG, +.0097; NGG, +.071; HOG, +.0115

·       Chicago ethanol was reported steady at $1.39; basis values versus Chicago were unch:  NYC, @ $.1225; Gulf, @ $.13250; Dallas, @ +$.0550; Tampa, @ -$.1350; LA, @ +$.19

·       Ethanol RINs values mostly unch: 2018’s, unch @ 5-6; 2019’s, -.25 @ 11 ½ -12; 2020’s, unch @ 18 -19                                               &nb​sp;                                                &nbs​p;            

·    &n​bsp;  The January RBOB/January ethanol spread widened $.0119 to $.3290/gallon Monday; trading $.3339 this morning       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​             ​

• SON fed cattle placements were up 363,000 head v. last year, bolstering the supply of cattle available in the spring
• Trade sources estimated U.S. cattle slaughter for Tuesday at 30,000 head vs. 121,000 last week & 0 last year (holiday)

·       ATI Research: larger breeding herd in the Hogs & Pigs report suggests record hog slaughter in the second half of 2020

·         Trade sources estimated U.S. hog slaughter for Tuesday at 151,000 head vs. 494,000 last week & 0 last year (holiday)   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®