HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly higher: CK, up $.0125; SK, up $.02; WK, up $.0075; KWK, down $.0075
· MACRO—Market uneasiness over Washington’s dysfunctional nature subsides, somewhat; focus turns to benefits from possible economic stimulus packages. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +1.14%; Shanghai, -0.43%; Hang Seng, +0.63%. EUROPE—Higher: DAX, +0.66%; FTSE, +0.08%; CAC, +0.10%. Wall STREET-Futures are firmer: DOW, +15; S&P, +2.50; NAS, +9.00. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +0.092 @ 98.91; April Gold, -$2.20 @ $1,253.50; May Crude, +$0.408 @ $48.13
· T-storm Weather: Several large & slow-moving systems interact with an influx of tropical air to produce multiple rounds of heavy rain across the southern two-thirds of the central U.S. over the next 10 days. Widespread rain of 1.75"-3.75" occurs away from the northern Corn Belt & northern Plains, including a majority of U.S. corn, soybean, HRW & SRW wheat areas. Upcoming rain will cause coverage of 60-day dryness affecting HRW wheat (currently incl. 66% of production) to drop sharply the next 10 days
· Corn: CK up $.0125 @ $3.57; CN up $.0125 @ $3.6475. The funds started the week by selling 5 K
· SB: SK up $.02 @ $9.7350; SN up $.0250 @ $9.8425. Funds: sold 4 SB, 5 SBM, 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.77, -1; LY; $.60
· Wheat: WK up $.0075 @ $4.2150; WN, up $.0050 @ $4.3525. The funds were estimated to have sold 6 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export forecast model increased from 56.5 mbu to 60.4 per week, which is 2.2 mil higher than avg. for the past 4 weeks; is 15 mbu higher than last year; and 25 million above the 5-year seasonal avg.
· USDA notes rapid corn planting in Delta: Arkansas, 19% v. 15% avg; Mississippi, 30% v. 19%; & Louisiana, 80% v. 48%
· Consultant: Brazil and Argentina corn production estimates steady from last week at 88.0 MMT and 37.0, respectively
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout est. at 2.263 bbu; U.S. sorghum; 16/17 carry-out at 38 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Alternating dry & wet periods keep safrinha (double crop) corn moist next 10 days in north Brazil
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export forecast declined from 21.0 mbu last week to 18.6 this week. This compares to 14.1/week last year; the 5-year average of 17.6; and the latest 4-week average of 31.2
· Consultant: Brazil 16/17 soybean production estimate is unchanged at 108.0 MMT (vs. 96.5 last year). However, Argentina estimate is increased 1.0 MMT to 56.0 and Paraguay output raised 0.9 mmt TO 10.0
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat export forecast is 20-25 mbu/week v. 14.3 last year & latest 4-week avg. of 21.3
· T-storm Weather: Coverage of 60-day dryness affecting U.S. HRW wheat (currently estimated at 66%) could potentially fall 50 points as a result of widespread, heavy rain over the next 10 days
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLK17, +$0.40 @ $48.13; EBK, $+0.40 @ $51.15; EBK-QCLK, .00; RBK, +$.0088; NGK, -$0.038; HOK, +$.0069
· A steady to weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 2 3/8; New York eased ¼; Gulf off 2 ¾; Tampa and Dallas steady; but LA was 3 lower at $1.66 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker on Monday: 2015’s down ¼ at 54-55 ½; 2016’s eased ¼ to 55-56 ½; & 2017’s off ½ to 55-56 ½
· The April RBOB/April ethanol spread widened 3+ cents on Monday, to+$.07890/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were $1.71 lower on Monday at $219.91, and are down $3.85 vs. last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $2.27 v. last week at $130.91/cwt, but is $5.21 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 43-cents on Monday to $78.40, but is still $2.00 lower vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $45.33/cwt vs. last week’s $46.04, last month’s $46.05 & last year’s $50.47
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather