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MARKET TREND Mixed CH, down 2, SF, down 5, WH, up 2

December 19, 2016 07:16 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CH, down $.0125; SF, down $.0475; WH, up $.0150;  KWH, up $.0375

·        MACRO:  Markets are “subdued” with both Asia and  Europe weaker.  U.S./Chinese tensions linger in the background.    ASIA-lower:  Nikkei, -0.05%;  Hang Seng, -0.85%; Shanghai, -0.15%.   EUROPE—lower:  FTSE, -0.01%; DAX, -0.03%; CAC, -0.26%.  Wall STREET:  Futures said to suggest a higher opening:  DOW, +30; S&P, +2.75; NASDAQ, +6.25.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.079 @102.875;  Gold, +$4.00 @ $1,139.30;  Jan Crude, +$0.23 @ $52.13. 

·        T-storm Weather: A stormy pattern affects Argentina over the next 10 days, resulting in widespread rain of 1.50”-3.00” (approx. twice the normal for the period).  Highest coverage & amounts focus on concentrated corn & soybean areas, effectively ending the unusually dry period that occurred from early-November through mid-December.  To the north in Brazil, limited rain occurs across/adjacent Bahia & Minas Gerais over next 10 days, but these areas were wet recently limiting concern over drying

·        Corn: CH down $.0125 @ $3.55; CK down $.0125 @ $3.6175.  The funds were even inFriday’s trade  

·        SB: SF dn $.0475 @ $10.32; SH, dn $.04 @ $10.4175.  Funds—Bot 5SB, 4 SBM, 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.65, -.01; LY, $.61

·        Wheat: WH up $.0175 @ $4.11; WK up $.0125  @ $4.23.  Fund activity was evenFriday                     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       &nb​sp;T-storm Weather: Forecast rain needed for Argentina corn due to driest period in more than 36 years dating to Nov. 1

·        Consultant: Nationwide corn crop development in Argentina--10% is in the ear filling stage; 30% is growing; 10-20% has just emerged; and 50% is still to plant

·        ATI Research: Review of latest USDA Vessel Count data support an increase in U.S. corn exports short-term.  Shipments over the next month are pegged at 45 mbu per week

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 43.4 mbu needed; 33.9 last week.  Milo—5.2 needed; 9.0 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2017 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $10.19 ¾--one year ago, November 2016 futures settled at $9.07 ¼

·        T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of heavy rain affected key soybean areas of Mato Grosso, Brazil over the weekend; 2.00”-4.00” & more est. by satellite, & measured totals exceeded 6.00” the last week in a few locations

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT: Soybeans, 27.0 mbu needed; 67.5 last week

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT: Wheat, 18.3 needed; 16.2 last week

·        T-storm Weather: U.S. temps turn markedly milder from today forward & cold readings do not immediately return> Maximums return to 20s-30s-40s & minimums begin to stay above zero, quickly diminishing snowpack in the south

ENERGY

·        Higher:  CLF17, +$0.23 @ $52.13; EBG, +$0.32;  EBG-CLF, $3.40, +$0.09; RBF, +$.0047; NGF, -$.055; HOF, +$.0033

·        A significantly weaker trend continued in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago declined 5 1/8; New York plummeted 11; Gulf off 6; Dallas slid 7 ½; Tampa down 9; and LA was 2 lower at $1.92 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s all declined 2 to 92-97

·        The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol inverse lost $.06 on Friday, falling to -$0.01690/gallon        

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY       ​                        &​nbsp;                    

·        Choice boxed beef values increased $1.17 on Friday to $194.83, and are $5.69 higher vs. last week

·        February live cattle futures on Friday closed at $115.35, the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 10

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass eased 36-cents on Friday to $77.11, but is still $1.88 higher compare to a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.12 Fri. at $57.71.  February futures gained $2.30 and are $6.99 above the index     

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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