MARKET TREND Lower CZ down 1, SF down 4, WZ down 4

HIGHLIGHT

·       MARKET TREND—Lower: CZ: down $.0075; SF: down $.055; WZ: down $.0475; KWZ: down $.04. 

·       MACRO.  Stocks are mixed in fairly quiet trading to begin the week ahead of Thanksgiving.  ASIA—Mixed: Nikkei, -0.60%; Shanghai, +0.28%; Hang Seng, +0.21%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.24%; FTSE, +0.16%; CAC, +0.33%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mixed—DOW, +2 S&P, unchanged; NAS, +4.00.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.120 @ 93.695;Gold: -$4.66 @ $1,291; Dec crude: -$0.10 @ $56.45/bl. 

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina,  a couple thunderstorms form in central/northern areas today-Tue. & again Fri.-Sat., but only scattered 0.20" to 0.40" amounts are seen over the next week.  Better thunderstorm chances are forecast in one week due to increased humidity but high coverage of well-organized rain is not expected.  Further north, a series of cool fronts trigger thunderstorms  across all corn & soybean areas of Brazil & Paraguay over next 10 to 14 days, producing 2.50" to 5.00" amounts

·       CZ, dn $.0075 @ $3.4225; CH, dn $.01 @ $3.54.  Funds bought 20 K on Friday  

·       SF, dn $.055 @ $9.85; SH, dn $.055 @ $9.96.  Funds: Bought 12 K SB, 5 SBM and were even SBO 

·       WZ, dn $.0475 @ $4.225; WH, dn $.0475 @ $4.3875.  The funds bought 5 k on Friday    

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: The 5-year average increase in U.S. corn harvest from Nov. 12-19 is 4%; the largest gain since 2009 is 7% in 2014

·       T-storm Weather: Topsoil moisture has been diminishing in key corn areas of central and northern Argentina due to limited rainfall in recent weeks.  Early-planted corn across these areas will remain fairly dry through late-month

·       Consultant: There is some initial concern about dryness across recently planted key Argentina corn producing areas

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 40.3 mbu needed; 14.8 last week.  Milo—4.5 needed; 3.3 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       January soybean futures last week traded down to $9.67—the lowest level since Oct. 4—but closed at $9.90 ½ on Friday.  This is the highest Friday settlement price for the contract since Oct. 13

·       T-storm Weather: Rainfall in recent weeks was near-normal in Brazil.  Widespread rain across soybeans areas of Brazil over the next 10 to 14 days prevent dryness from becoming a problem into next month

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 38.7 mbu needed; 76.7 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 19.6 mbu needed; 11.1 last week

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat emergence on average increases 5% from Nov. 12-19 to 88%

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLZ17, -$0.10 @ $56.45; EBF, -$0.46 @ $62.26; EBF-QCLF, -$0.30; RBZ, -.005;NGZ, -.053; HOZ, -.0125

·       Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Friday: Chicago is quoted at $1.3925, up $0.01625; Basis to Chicago—New York, +8 ¼; Gulf, +7 ½; Dallas, +5 ¼; Tampa, +21 ¾; and LA, +15 ¾

·       Ethanol RINs firmed on Fri.: 2016’s up 1 ¼ to 85-88 ½; 2017’s gained 1 ¼ to 87-89 ½; & 2018’s added 1 ¼ to 86 ½-89

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading at +$.3244/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nbs​p;         

·       Ch​oice boxed beef values fell $3.00 on Fri. to $207.24—largest decline since June 28—& are dn $6.61 v. a week ago

·       Cattle on Feed: Nov. 1 on feed, 106.3% (105.7% avg est); Oct. place, 110.2% (107.6%); Oct. Market, 105.6% (105.4%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 27-cents on Fri. to $80.03, but is still 95-cents lower vs. last week  

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.55 on Fri. to $65.42.  December futures increased $0.55 but are $4.77 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 

Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com

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