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MARKET TREND Higher CN, up 3, SN, up 8, WN, up 4

May 19, 2017 07:02 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Higher: CN, up $.0225; SN, up $.0775; WN, +$.04; KWN, up $.0450

·       MACRO—Higher commodity prices and some positive numbers from yesteday’s Philly fed manufacturing survey lift equity markets ASIA—Higher:  Nikkei, +0.19%; Shanghai, +0.03%; Hang Seng, +0.15%.  EUROPE—Higher:  DAX, +0.32%; FTSE, +0.46%; CAC, +0.56%. Wall Street-Futures are higher:  DOW, +24; S&P, +5; NAS, +13.25.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.395 @ 97.190; June Gold, +0.7 @ $1,254; June Crude,+$0.53 @ $49.88 

·       T-storm Weather: A powerful system and strong cool front move across the central U.S. through Sat-.-Sun.  Rain amounts of 1.00”-3.00” result across a large area with highest totals across the Delta, southwest half of the Corn Belt, & adjacent areas of the central & southern Plains, including some wet wheat.  Exceptions include spring wheat in the northern Plains where little or no rain occurs, & corn/wheat in the southwestern Plains.  Temps turn much cooler from northwest to southeast through the period

·       Corn: CN up $.0225 @ $3.6825;  CZ up $.0225 @ $3.76.  The funds sold 20 yesterday 

·       SB: SN up $.0775 @ $9.5250; SX up $.0625 @ $9.51.   Funds: sold 15 SB, 8 SBM, 7 SBO. Board Crush: $.89, +6; LY; $1.02

·       Wheat: up $.04 @ $4.2975; WU up $.0350 @ $4.4325.   The funds sold 2 K

 

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·        ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn emergence increases approx. 19% from May 14-21 to 55%

·        T-storm Weather: Most U.S. corn areas are cooler-than-normalMay 22-26.  Showers accompany coolness, especially when a strong front passes around May 23; 0.20”-0.40” for northwest half of Corn Belt, 0.40”-0.80” for southeast half

·        U.S. old-crop corn export sales week end May 11: 27.8 mbu, more than double last week’s 10.9 &  +1% v. 4-week avg.

·        December 2017 corn futures on Thursday closed at $3.84, the lowest settlement price for the contract since April 24.  One year ago, December 2016 corn futures settled at $3.97 ¼    

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        July 2017 soybean futures Thu. ended at $9.44 ¾--lowest closing price since April 8, 2016.  A sharp decline in Brazil’s currency on Thu., which results in a higher domestic soybean price, could fuel aggressive cash sales by Brazil farmers

·        ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean emergence increases approx. 12% from May 14-21 to 21%

·        U.S. old-crop export sales of soybeans week end May 11: 13.1 mbu, up 10% v. last week but down 6% v. 4-week avg.

·        ATI Research: 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat emergence increases approx. 15% from May 14-21 to 59%

·        T-storm Weather: The percentage of U.S. spring wheat that was wet over the past 30 days is the lowest since 2013

·        Export sales of U.S. wheat week end May 11: 9.1 mbu for 16/17 vs. 6.4 last year.  17/18, 14.4 mbu v. 21.1 in 2016

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLM17, -$0.53 @ $49.88; EBN, +0.42 @ $52.93; EBN-QCLN, -.12; RBM,+.016; NGM, +.027; HOM, +.0168

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago up 5/8; New York down ¾; Gulf firmed ½; Tampa fell 3; Dallas declined 2; but LA was unchanged at $1.58 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs posted gains on Thursday: 2016’s and 2017’s firmed 1 ½ to 55-57 

·        The June RBOB/June ethanol spread tightened $.0034 Thursday, to +$.14330/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;     

·        Choice boxed beef values declined 96-cents on Thursday to $247.21 , but are still 35-cents higher vs. last week

·        Moderate cash cattle trade surfaced on Thursday in Kansas and Texas at $134--$3.50 to $4.00 lower than last week

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass value was 73-cents higher on Thursday at $86.40, and is up $5.12 vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.78 on Thu. to $74.92.  June futures were $0.25 higher and are $4.23 above the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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