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MARKET TREND Higher CN, up 3, SN, up 5, WN, up 5

June 7, 2017 07:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Higher:  CN, up $.0250; SN, up $.0475; WN, up $.05;  KWN, up $.0525

·       MACRO—Mixed:  U. K. election, White House and EU policy direction questions have the market leaning towards a risk-off sentiment.  ASIA—Slightly higher:  Nikkei, +.02%;Shanghai, +1.24%;  Hang Seng, -0.09%.   EUROPE—Mostly higher: DAX, -0.04%; FTSE, +0.15%; CAC, +0.47%. Wall Street-Futures have turned higher:  DOW, +2;  S&P, +0.75; NAS, +4.75.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +.199 @ 96.565; June Gold, -3.10 @ $1,291; Aug Crude, -$0.19 @ $48.15

·       T-storm Weather: Isolated thunderstorms dot the U.S. Plains & northwest Corn Belt through Thu., while coolness prevails in the Corn Belt & Delta.  Temperatures soar from west to east over Thu.-Sun. in response to a large & strong system to the west.  Thunderstorm coverage will likely be limited when this system passes Sun.-Tue.  Scattered amounts are forecast & limited to northern areas for the Corn Belt and Plains early next week where 0.25" to 0.75" is most probable (including spring wheat)

·       Corn: CN up $.0250 @ $3.7975; CZ up $.03 @ $3.9875.  The funds were big buyers yesterday, 10 K       

·       SB: SN up $.0475 @ $9.2825; SX up $.0425 @ $9.36.   Funds: Bot 3 SB, 1 SBO, 1 SBM.  Board Crush: $.84, +4; LY; $1.11

·       Wheat: WN up $.0475 @ $4.4050; WU up $.0475 @ $4.55.   Tuesday the funds bought 5 K   

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA WASDE report on June 9: Avg. trade guess 16/17 U.S. corn carryout, 2.284 bbu; avg. guess 17/18, 2.072 bbu

·       T-storm Weather: Northern U.S. areas turn cooler/drier after this week’s system passes.  A secondary system trails the main system & is the one most likely to bring rain to Corn Belt next week, likely June 13-16; 0.50"-1.50" amounts 

·       Consultant: Harvest of safrinha (double crop) corn in Brazil just getting underway (1-2%); crop est. unch at 93.0 MMT

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn emergence increases approx. 7% from June 4-11 to 94%

·       Ethanol margins: $0.20 per gallon—up vs. $0.11 last week but below $0.39 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report on June 9: Avg. trade guess 16/17 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.434 bbu; avg. guess 17/18, 0.513 bbu

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting progress increases approx. 8% from June 4-11 to 87%

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. unch at 111.0 MMT.  A weaker Brazilian currency has encouraged producer sales

·       MGE July 2017 wheat futures traded $6.04 on Tue.—first time a nearby contract has topped $6.00 since July 9, 2015

·       T-storm Weather: U.S. spring wheat is experiencing its driest open to June in more than 5 years with only 3% of production having been wetter than normal over the last 30 days, and 10% wet over the last 90 days

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLQ17, -$0.19 @ $48.15; EBQ, -$0.21 @ $49.91; EBQ-QCLQ, -.06; RBQ,-.0164; NGQ, +.040; HOQ, -.0011

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.5 (-4.6); Gasoline, -0.2 (+4.1); Distillates, NA (+1.8)

·       A slightly firmer tone was noted in most cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago eased ¼; New York, Tampa, Dallas  and Gulf added ½; and LA was ½ higher at $1.72 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs eased slightly on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s declined ½ to 70-72 

·       The July RBOB/June ethanol inverse gave up $.0114 yesterday to settle at -$.0045/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nb​sp;                      

·       Choice boxed beef values increased $2.10 on Tuesday to $250.45 , and are up $5.20 compared to last week

·       August 2017 live cattle futures on Tuesday posted a new contract high of $127.65, but closed $2.60 lower at $123.60

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.05 on Tuesday to $89.34, and is 48-cents lower vs. a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.30 on Tue. to $78.20.  June futures gained $0.925 and are $3.45 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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