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MARKET TREND Firmer CH, Up 1, SH, up 2, WH, up 3

January 9, 2017 07:29 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Firmer: CH, +$.0175; SH, up $.0075; WH, up $.0450;  KWH, up $.04

·        MACRO:  global equity markets seem in a pensive mood.  ASIA—Higher.  Nikkei, closed; Hang Seng, +0.25%; Shanghai,  +0.55%.   EUROPE—weaker: FTSE, -0.00%; DAX, -0.60%; CAC, -0.79%.  Wall STREET:  Futures are lower:  DOW, -29; S&P, -3.25; NASDAQ, -0.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.071 @102.280;  Jan Gold, +$1.10 @ $1,173.00;  Feb Crude, -$0.97 @ $53.02.  Deliveries:  SBM, 208; SBO, 345; SB, 242

·        T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms brought 0.50”-1.50” of rain to some (not all) of the wettest corn and soybeans in central and southern Argentina on Saturday, but continued to miss driest areas in/near southwest Buenos Aires.  Rain continues in scattered fashion into Wednesday in Argentina, producing another 0.50”-2.00” for most (wettest in some of the wettest central area, and driest in driest areas of/near southeast Buenos Aires).  Intensity of dryness in northeast Brazil worsens until at least Friday

·        Corn: CH up $.0175 @ $3.5975; CK up $.0175 @ $3.6650.  The funds closed the week buying 3 K      

·        SB: SH up $.0075 @ $9.9550; SK up $.01 @ $10.0450.  Funds—sold 8 SB, 6 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $.75, $.00; LY, $.50

·        Wheat: WH up $.0475 @$4.28; WK up $.0450 @ $4.3925.  Fund buying was put at 2 Kon Friday                    

 

      CORN/SORGHUM

·     &​nbsp;  Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 16/17 carryout is 2.378 bbu vs. 2.403 in December

·        Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.323 bbu vs. 11.238 last year

·        T-storm Weather: Key/flooded areas of central Argentina will be along the dividing zone between driest and wettest weather Jan. 11-17.  Another 0.75”-1.50” of unneeded rain likely occurs across northern halves of Cordoba & Santa Fe

·        Consultant: Growing indications that Argentina corn acreage will fall short of current USDA est. of 11.1 million acres

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 44.4 mbu needed; 25.1 last week.  Milo—5.1 needed; 2.6 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        January 2017 soybean futures on Friday closed at $9.86—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 16

·        Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 16/17 carryout is 473 mbu vs. 480 in December

·        Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 2.953 bbu vs. 2.715 last year

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST: Soybeans, 24.0 mbu needed; 58.0 last week

·        Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 2.056 bbu vs. 1.746 last year

·        Jan. 12 USDA Winter Wheat Seedings: Avg. trade guesses; HRW, 25.3 (26.6 last year); SRW, 5.6 (6.0), White, 3.5 (3.5)

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST: Wheat, 18.4 needed; 14.5 last week

ENERGY

·        Lower:  CLG17, -$0.97 @ $53.02; EBH, -$0.95; EBH-CLH, $2.24, +$0.01; RBG, -$.0282;NGG, -$0.054; HOG, -$.0238

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Friday: Chicago added ¼; New York down 2 3/8; Gulf and Tampa eased 1 ½;  Dallas off 1; but LA was ½ higher at $1.69 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were higher on Friday: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s were all 5 ¼ higher at 77-84

·        The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread gave up $.0477 on Friday, falling to 0.08300/gallon,  premium RBOB         

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;          

·       &​nbsp;Choice boxed beef fell $2.71 on Friday to $198.81 and is down $4.52 compared to a week ago

·        U.S. cattle slaughter week end Jan. 7 down 2.7% v. last year but beef production 2.3% lower due to heavier weights

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 69-cents on Friday to $78.51, and is $2.62 lower vs. last week  

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.08 to $57.69.  February futures were $0.90 lower but are still $6.285 above the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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