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Market Trend Corn, Steady, Up 1, Soybeans, 6 to 7 Higher, Wheat, 1

October 31, 2014 07:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, Steady, Up ½; Soybeans, 6-7 Higher; Wheat, 1 Lower.   Europe:  Wheat, +4 ¼; Corn, -8                  

·    &nbs​p;    Euphoria from a hefty QIII U.S. GDP # and solid earnings carried over to Asia on Friday.  The Nikkei soared literally, up 4.83% (BOJ unexpectedly announced a new stimulus program); Shanghai and the Hang Seng closed 1.25% higher.  Europe is higher out of the gate:  CAC 40, +1.97%; DAX, +1.7%; FTSE, +1.15%.  Pre-market indications suggest Wall Street will close out the month on a very positive note:  DOW futures, +195; NAS, +63 and S&P, +23.  Energy futures are mostly lower; the $ Index is approaching a ½ point gain and gold continues to be somewhat out of favor, down $25.80 at $1,172.30

·         Weather: Dry weather is forecast today for the western Corn Belt but light rain is forecast for the east.  Most areas that see rain are likely to receive 0.10” or less, although isolated amounts of 0.25” are possible in far southwest Michigan and northwest Indiana.  Temperatures are forecast to be below-normal today but windy conditions are likely to make readings feel much colder. The weekend is likely to be dry for nearly the entire Midwest with temperatures remaining cooler-than-normal on Saturday then gradually warming from west to east on Sunday.  Scattered light showers return to the west on Monday and the east on Tuesday

·         Dec Corn Up $.0025 at $3.7425; March Up $.0025 at $3.8725.  The funds  were even inThursday’s trade

·         Nov SB Up $.07 at $10.3125; Jan Up $.07 at $10.3675.    Funds: sold 4 K SB; 4 K SBM; even SBO. No SB deliveries

·         Dec Wheat down $.0125 at $5.3475; March Down $.0075 at $5.4825  The funds were also even in wheat yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM                              ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;        

·        ​ December 2014 corn futures traded $3.81 Thursday—highest price since Aug. 18—but closed $0.0125 lower at $3.74

·         ATI Research: A moderate increase in U.S. corn harvest is anticipated this week due to mostly dry weather.  The average increase from Oct. 26-Nov. 2 over the past 20 years has been 12% with the largest being 18%

·         U.S. corn export sales of 19.3mbu in latest week were a marketing year low and 55% below the prior 4-week average

·         U.S. sorghum export sales of 4.5mbu in latest week were 51% below the prior week & down 10% vs. the 4-week avg.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Nov. 2014 soybean futures traded $10.5375 Thurs.—highest since Aug. 20—but closed $0.1875 lower at $10.2425

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean harvest progress as of Nov. 2 is likely to be near the 5-year average of 84%

·         U.S. soybean export sales of 48.7mbu in latest week were 39% below the prior week but 8% above the 4-week avg.

·         CBT Dec 2014 wheat futures traded $5.455 Thursday—highest price since Sept. 3—but closed $0.0225 lower at $5.36

·         U.S. all wheat export sales of 16.3mbu in latest week were up 48% vs. the prior week but 5% below the 4-week avg.

ENERGY

·         3 out of 4 futures are again lower: QCLZ14,-$0.70 at $80.42; QRBZ,-$0.0225; QNGZ, +$.107; and QHOZ, -$.0189

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago up ½; New York gained 1; Gulf and Tampa down a penny;  Dallas eased ¾; and LA was 1 ¼ lower at $2.04 per gallon

·         RINs were mixed: 2013’s off ¼ at 45 ½-46 ½; 2014’s up 1/8 to 46 ¼-46 ½; and 2015’s gained 1/8 to 46-46 ½

·         The November RBOB/Ethanol spread tugged in another $.0239 Thursday to $.3588; implied exports from Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​                        &​nbsp;          

​ ·         Choice boxed beef values were 28-cents lower on Thursday but are $3.92 higher compared to one week ago

·         Asking prices for cash cattle on Thursday remained firm at $172-$173 in the South with very little trade noted

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased $1.28 Thursday, is down $3.08 vs. last week and lowest since Feb. 21

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $1.58 to $93.03.  December futures down $1.40 to $87.20 and are $5.83 below the index

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 2.3% from last year and average set over the last four weeks is 3.8% above last year

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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