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Market Trend Corn, CN Up 1, Soybeans, SN Up 2, Wheat, WN, Up

May 28, 2015 07:02 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Up $.0150; Soybeans, SN Up $.0175; Wheat, WN, Up $.0425;  KWN, Up $.0150

·         Ouch!  Profit-taking, tighter stock margin requirements, Greece, etc. all weigh on Shanghai which literally plummets 6 ½% overnight; the Hang Seng fell 2.23% while the Nikkei actually managed a .39% gain.  EU officials less optimistic on an agreement with Greece: DAX, -.33%; FTSE, +.19%; CAC 40, -.49%.  Russia and the U.S. in a tiff over soccer as 2018 World Cup bidding procedures come under scrutiny.    Wall Street looks red:  DOW futures, off 20; NAS, -3.8; S&P, -1.75. Gold is up $1.50; the $ Index is .187 lower at 97.66 and energy futures are mostly higher with July WTI up $.13

·         T-storm Weather: Areas of rain and thunderstorms end Friday or Saturday as a large system passes, particularly limiting planting in wettest areas of the Plains.  At least several days of drying follow as very warm to hot weather assembles in the Plains by Monday. Waves of energy flow along the northern edge of warmth, initially triggering scattered thunderstorms across northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains within Monday-Wednesday.  Rain chances likely expand to include a larger area next week as additional waves pass, and extreme soil moisture in the Plains provides a new source of muggy air

·         July Corn Up $.0175 at $3.5125; Sep Up $.0175 at $3.5750. 3rd straight day of fund selling, 8 K this time

·         July SB Up $.0175 at $9.2875; Aug Down $.0025 at $9.16.  Funds: bought 2 K SB; 4 SBM & sold 3 K SBO

·         July Wheat Up $.0425 at $4.92; Sep Up $.0350 at $4.9625.  Funds continue to sell, 4 K on Wednesday

 

 

CORN/SORGHUM           ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                                &nb​sp;    

·         ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports expected to be around 44 mbu/week with sorghum at 4 million

·         T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms affect the central U.S. from today through Sundaywith 0.75”-1.50” most common (except in the southern Plains where 1.25”-2.50” occurs)

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn emergence for the week ending May 31 was approx. 77% last year; 5-year avg. is approx. 79% 

·         Ethanol margins: $0.59 per gallon--up vs. $0.55 last week but below $1.05 last year.  EIA report at 10:00 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Year-to-date soybean exports have left U.S. in good position to slightly exceed USDA’s 1.8 bbu forecast

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean planting progress for week end May 31 approx. 75% last year; 5-year avg. is approx. 70% 

·         Private crop consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimated at 59.0 MMT compared to the USDA at 58.5

·         ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat crop model up 8 mbu to 521 mbu

·         T-storm Weather: More than half HRW wheat in CO, OK & TX received at least 60 days’ worth of rain within 30 days

ENERGY

·         Higher:  CLN15, +$0.13 at $57.64; EBN, +$0.29; EBN-CLN, +4.73, up $.18, RBN, +$.0157;NGN, -$.030; HON, +$.0063

·         EIA estimates: crude, -1.1 (API: +1.3); Gasoline, -1.0 (-3.6); Distillates, -0.4 (NA)

·         A weaker trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago off 3 1/8; New York down 2 ¼; Gulf eased 3 ¼; Dallas declined 3 ½; Tampa dipped 4; and LA was 6 ½ lower at $1.67 ½ per gallon

·         RINs posted declines: 2013’s off 3 5/8 to 65-67; 2014’s down 2 ½ at 67-69; and 2015’s slipped 3 to 65-66 ½

·         The June RBOB/June Ethanol spread narrowed $.0188 to .4135/gallon on Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              ​                         ​                    <​/wbr>

·         Choice​ boxed beef values were up  4-cents on Wednesday but are $3.87 lower vs. a week ago

·         October live cattle futures closed at $153.325 on Wednesday—highest settlement price for the contract since Jan. 7

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout decreased 35-cents on Wed. but is still 9-cents higher compared to last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.40 lower at $82.51.  June futures up $0.60 at $83.775 and are $1.265 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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