HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Weaker: CK, -1; SK, -2; WK, -6; KWH, -6 ¼. Dely: SBM-69; SBO-155; C-468; SB-153; SRW-11 
• What caught my eye:  Just how much of an impact will the EPA proposal to lift summer restrictions on E-15 use during the summer should the final ruling be in place by June 1 as the agency indicated?  Ideas on increased corn demand vary
• Asia: Lower-Nikkei, -0.99%; Shanghai, -1.09%; Hang Seng, -0.39%. EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, -0.06%; FTSE, +0.09%; CAC, +0.24%. WALL STREET: Mostly higher: DOW, flat; S&P, +2.75; NAS, +8.25. EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.60 @ $57.47 Gold:  +$10.40 @ $1,308;Mar $ Index, -0.079 @ 96.820.  Brexit and Boeing have the markets tentative; durables & PPI data out today
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, similar weather continues over the next 10 to 14 days as cool fronts trigger thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times, producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall of 2.25” to 4.50”.  Temps will average near- to above-normal north and below-normal south.  In Argentina, all areas stay much cooler than normal by 4°F to 8°F over the next 10 to 14 days, which is near-ideal for filling late-corn and soybeans.  High coverage of organized rainfall is not expected 

·       CK, down $.01 @ $3.6475; CN, down $.0075 @ $3.7475.  The funds did a turn-around Tuesday, buying 15 K           

• SK, down $.02 @ $8.95; SN, down $.0175 @ $9.0925.  Funds: Bought 5 SB, 2 SMB, & 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $.99, 0; LY, $1.32
• WK, down $.06 @ $4.47; WN, down $.06 @ $4.5475.  The funds were estimated buyers of 11 K  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate for 2018/19 is increased 1.0 MMT to 93.5 MMT with a neutral to higher bias

• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, weather likely to stay favorable for safrinha(double crop) corn into late month; only 14% & 18% of safrinha corn was drier than normal over 14- & 30-day periods end March 10, & temps were close to normal

·       Ethanol margins: $0.21 per gallon—up vs. $0.18 last week but well below $0.40 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

• ATI Research: U.S. corn exports the next 4 weeks are forecast at 35-45 mbu per week compared to 53.4 mbu last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 54.0 MMT with a neutral bias.  The weather in Argentina during the first 10 days of March was quite wet, as some areas received their average monthly total rainfall

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, high coverage of organized rain for soybeans over the next 10-14 days is not expected
• ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports next 4 weeks are forecast at 20-25 mbu per week compared to 15.4 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., 30% of U.S. HRW wheat was drier than normal the last 30 days but rain is forthcoming

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLJ19, +$0.60 @ $57.47; EBK, +$0.44 @ $67.11; EBK-QCLK, -$0.16; RBJ, +.0191; NGJ, -.007; HOJ, +0.0049

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +1.9 (-2.5); Gasoline, -2.5 (-5.8); Distillates, -1.9 (+0.2).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.024 mbpd (range: 1.020-1.035).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.205 mb (range 24.050-24.500)

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0180 to $1.30125; basis, mostly weaker: New York, -$.00550 @ $.11375; Gulf, +$.0170 @ $.11625; Dallas, -$.0055 @ $.13125; Tampa, -.00550 @ $.23625; LA, -$.0130 @ $.22375   

·       Ethanol RINs, much weaker: 2017’s, -5.75 @ 8-10; 2018’s, -3.375 @ 15 ¼ -17 ½; 2019’s, -3.125 @ 17-20                             &nb​sp;               

·   &​nbsp;   The April RBOB/April ethanol spread lost $.0285 on Tuesday, settling at+$.50450/gallon; @ $.5160 this morning     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​                     &nbs​p;     

• Choice boxed beef increased 86-cents on Tuesday to $228.22, and is $4.18 higher compared to a week ago
• Since Feb. 8, choice boxed beef has increased $12.87 (6.0%) and is at the highest level since May 30, 2018

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 65-cents on Tue. to $65.90, and is up $4.74 compared to last week 

• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.40 on Tue. to $52.38.  April futures were $0.80 higher and are $11.27 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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