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TRENDS Weaker CH, Down 1,SH, Unchanged, WH, Down 3

February 11, 2019 07:17 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—(5:27 am) Weaker: CH, -$.0050; SH, -$.0025; WH, -$.0275; KWH, -$.0225
  • MACRO: Stocks are higher this morning, mostly in hopes of a positive resolution to the U.S./China trade discussions.  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, Closed; Shanghai, +1.36%Hang Seng, +0.71%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.98%; FTSE, +0.87%; CAC, +1.06%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +78; S&P, +9.25; NAS, +29.25.  EXTERNALS: March crude:-$0.39 @ $52.33; Gold:  -$8.50 @ $1,310; Mar $ Index, +0.169 @ 96.585 
  • T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms expectedly returned to much of central & northern Brazil over the weekend.  Near- & above-normal rain affects Brazil over the next two weeks as cool fronts trigger thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times, easing the coverage & intensity of dryness on corn & soybeans.  Argentina receives some thunderstorms today, but followed by at least 10 days of drying, which may become more notable with time because rain was also limited the last two weeks

·       CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.7375 CK, dn $.0075 @ $3.8150.  More fund selling as S&D disappoints, 6 K 

  • SH, dn $.0025 @ $9.1425; SK, dn $.0050 @ $9.2825.  Funds: Bought 1 SB, 1 SBM, even SBO.  Board Crush:, $.98,0; LY, $1.25
  • WH, dn $.0275 @ $5.1450; WK, dn $.0275 @ $5.1675.  The funds bought 2 K on Friday                

 CORN/SORGHUM

·    &​nbsp;  ATI Research: In the absence of major purchases by China, there appears to be room for a lower 2018/19 U.S. corn export forecast.  That’s due to Friday’s 3.5 MMT boost in Argentina crop size and 0.5 MMT increase in Ukraine exports

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 52.2 mbu needed; 35.5 last week.  Milo—2.6 needed; 1.0 last week

·       Consultant: Although rainfall this week in Brazil will slow the ongoing soybean harvest, the rapid pace of harvest that took place in late January and early February allowed a record fast planting pace of safrinha (double crop) corn

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, near- & above-normal rain the next 2 weeks supports safrinha (double crop) corn growth

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: U.S./China trade uncertainty overshadowed Friday’s somewhat friendly USDA Supply/Demand report

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 36.2 mbu needed; 35.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, near- and above-normal rainfall of 3.00” to 6.00” accumulates in central and northern soybean producing areas over the next two weeks; as a result, soybean harvest occasionally slows in these regions

·       Consultant: In Brazil, disappointing soybean yields continue to be seen across most major producing areas

·       ATI Research: Friday’s lower-than-expected U.S. HRW & SRW wheat seedings puts more emphasis on spring weather 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 26.8 mbu needed; 16.2 last week

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH19, -$0.39 @ $52.33; EBJ, -$0.15 @ $61.95; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.22;RBH, -.0009; NGH, +.105HOH, +0.0035

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.01375 Friday to $1.30125; basis values mostly weaker: New York, +$.00875 @ $.10875; Gulf, -$.00375 @ $.09875; Dallas, -$.00375 @ $.08875; Tampa, -$.00875 @ $.18875; LA, -$.00376 @ $.18875   

·       Ethanol RINs, weaker: 2017’s, -.6250 @ 16 ½ -17; 2018’s, -.6250 @ 17 ½ -18; 2019’s, -0.875 @ 20- 21                                    

&mi​ddot;       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread widened $.0056 on Friday to+$.1384/gal

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &nb​sp;                       

  • Choice boxed beef declined $1.36 on Friday to $215.35, and is $1.09 lower versus the previous week
  • June 2019 live cattle futures on Friday closed at $118.10, the highest settlement price for life of contract

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 36-cents on Friday to $63.70, and is down $1.97 versus a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.36 on Fri. to $56.53.  February futures were $0.225 lower, & are $1.48 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

            



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