HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Weak:  CZ, -$.01; SX, -$.02; WZ, -$.0050; KWZ, +$.0050 

·       What caught my eye:  Well, China may not need that 10 MMT of U.S. beans that were said to be exempt from tariffs—some see a 10-15% fall in bean demand this year and may need to only cover 6-7 MMT of needs before the Brazil harvest hits in February

·       Yes and no, UK agrees on Brexit terms but doesn’t buy exit timetable.  ASIA: Mostly lower--Nikkei,+0.34%; Shanghai, -0.43%; Hang Seng, -0.82%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.27%; FTSE, +.47%; CAC, -0.31%.  WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-- DOW, -58; S&P, -2.25; NAS, -1.50.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.54 @ $53.94; Gold: +$7.90 @ $1,495; $ Index: +.049 @ 97.575

• T-storm Weather®: The most likely scenario is for dry weather to affect most U.S. corn and soybean areas into Friday, after which the first in a series of potent systems produces 0.50” to 1.00” of rain Sat.-Sun. across the Corn Belt and Delta with highest totals in/near the Delta.  Another system or two quickly follow a similar path within Mon.-Thu. to bring another 0.25” to 0.75” to the Corn Belt and eastern Plains, but higher totals of 0.50” to 1.00” to the Delta
• CZ, dn $.01 @ $3.87; CH, dn $.01 @ $3.99.  The funds were even in yesterday’s trading               
• SX, dn $.02 @ $9.32; SF, dn $.0225 @ $9.46.  Funds: Bot 2 SB; even SBM & bot 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.81, +2; LY, $1.47
• WZ, dn $.0050 @ $5.1750; WH, dn $.01 @ $5.2325.  Fund sales:  3 K           

CORN/SORGHUM

• ​ T-storm Weather®: a much drier period develops for U.S. corn Oct. 30-Nov. 1 forward as a strong cold front likely induces a significant freeze around Nov. 1 for much of 74% production that did not experience a killing event Oct. 14
• ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is 5 lower on the bottom end of the range at 10-25 mbu per week

·       Ethanol margins: $0.23 per gallon—up $.01 from last week & well above $0.07 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

• Through Oct. 22, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.9078

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• T-storm Weather®: a much drier period develops for U.S. soybeans Oct. 30-Nov. 1 forward as a strong cold front likely induces a significant freeze around Nov. 1 for much of 77% production that did not experience a killing event Oct. 14
• Through Oct. 22, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures has averaged $9.2597

·       Australia could be on the verge of its smallest wheat crop in more than a decade due to persistent drought conditions

·       T-storm Weather®: some easing of dryness and drought for Argentina wheat is likely into next month

• ATI Research: current bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is 11-16 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLZ19, -$0.54 @ $53.94; EBZ, -$0.51 @ $59.19; EBZ-QCLZ, +.02; RBZ, -.0081; NGZ, -.016; HOZ, +.0111

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.9 (+4.5); Gasoline, -2.1 (-0.7); Distillates, -2.8 (-3.5).  Estimates for ethanol production and stocks were unavailable

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.0245 Tuesday, easing to $1.4705/gal; basis values were mostly firm:  NYC, -$.0005 @ +$.1145; Gulf, +$.0095 @ +$.0645; Dallas, +$.0145 @ +.1195; Tampa, +$.02950 @ +$.2345; LA, +$.0245 @ +$.3245

·       Ethanol RINs were steady/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 6 -8; 2019’s, +.25 @ 15 ½ -16; 2020’s, +1.00 @ 23 -24                                &nbs​p;                                                                  

· &n​bsp;     The November RBOB/November ethanol spread was little changed, narrowing $.0030 to $.1879/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &nb​sp; 

·       Choice boxed beef increased 80-cents on Tuesday to $220.93 and is $2.91 higher versus last week   

• Estimates for Oct. 25 USDA Cattle on Feed: Oct. 1 on feed, 98.9%; Placed in Sep., 101.5%; Marketed in Sep., 101.1%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $2.41 on Tues. to $75.48 & is down $1.81 versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.05 on Tue. to $65.47.  December futures fell $2.325 but are $0.030 above the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®