HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Up:  CU, +$.0475; SQ, +$.0650; WU, +$.0425; KWU, +$.0425. Del’y: SB: 1,218; SBM: 620; SBO: 611
• What caught my eye: Trump’s threat of additional tariffs obviously weighed on the Thursday’s markets but some analysts suggest calmer heads will prevail and the Chinese will buy additional U.S. agricultural products, eliminating the 10% tariff imposition

·       Additional tariffs threat roils global markets.  Asia: Down--Nikkei, -2.11%;Shanghai, -1.41%; Hang Seng, -2.35%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.51%; FTSE,-1.74%; CAC, -2.65%.  WALL STREET—Futures, lower: DOW, -57; S&P, -10.00; NAS,-46.75.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$1.38 @ $55.39; Gold:  +17.00 @ $1,449; $ Index:-.147 @ 98.222

·       T-storm Weather®: Temps remain slightly below normal for most U.S. corn, soybeans, & spring wheat over the next week as cool surface-level high pressure lingers into the weekend, & a cool front passes early next week.  Rains will be limited within the cool period, except for heavy rain in the far-southwest Corn Belt, & some thunderstorms in the central and northern Plains.  Temps likely turn seasonably-mild from late next week forward, allowing some thunderstorms to form in varying areas at varying times

• CU, up $.0475 @ $3.9750; CZ, up $.0475 @ $4.0725.  Heavy fund selling, another 25 K; threat of new tariffs    
• SQ, up $.0650 @ $8.5350; SU, up $.0675 @ $8.5950.  Funds: Sell 15 K SB, 8 K SBM, & 4 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.02, +3; LY, $1.53
• WU, up $.0425 @ $4.80; WZ, up $.04 @ $4.8450.  Fund selling totaled 8 K  has tariff worries spilled into wheat     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​Sep 2019 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.92 ¾--1^st time nearby corn futures have settled below $4.00 since May 23

·       ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop corn as of July 25 stood at 306 mbu, which is down 51% from 620 mbu at this time a year ago

• T-storm Weather®: Most of central U.S. forecast to be slightly cooler than normal through Sat. with highs in the 70s-80s & lows in 50s-60s; most of the same areas will be fairly dry except for heavy rain near eastern KS & western MO

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production est. is steady this week at 100.0 MMT; neutral to slightly higher bias going forward

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop soybeans as of July 25 stood at 409 mbu, which is down 31% from 593 mbu this time a year ago

• T-storm Weather®: Most of central U.S. forecast to be slightly cooler than normal through Sat. with highs in the 70s-80s & lows in 50s-60s; most of the same areas will be fairly dry except for heavy rain near eastern KS & western MO

·       ATI Research: Unshipped export sales of U.S. all wheat as of July 25 were 187 mbu—up 21% from 154 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather®: Drought intensifies for eastern Australian wheat over the next 7-10 days, but not hot

ENERGY

·       Up: CLV19, +$1.38 @ $55.39; EBV, +$1.67 @ $62.17; EBV-QCLV, +.30; RBV,+.0334; NGV, -.041; HOV, +.0397

·       Chicago ethanol declined $.01725 to $1.4565 on Thursday; basis values were firmer: NYC, +$.00725 @ $.1010; Gulf, +$.00975 @ $.09850; Dallas, +$.00725 @ $.1235; Tampa, +$.00725 @ $.23350; LA, +$.00725 @ $.19350

·       Ethanol RINs were .50 higher with 2018’s @ 16 -17; and 2019’s @ 20 -20 ½                                       ​                        &​nbsp;                      <​/p>

·       The September RBOB/August ethanol spread slammed in $.1401 to $.3129/gallon on Thursday  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &n​bsp;      

• Choice boxed beef was 70-cents higher on Thursday at $214.24 and is up $1.67 versus last week  
• Week to date cattle slaughter through Thursday is estimated at 477,000 head compared to 472,000 last year (+1%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 67-cents on Thu. to $86.82 and is $4.18 higher versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.70 on Thu. to $84.11.  August futures were $2.525 lower & are $7.31 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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