HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly weaker:  CZ, -$.0275; SX, +$.0075; WZ, -$.0475; KWZ, -$.03 
• What caught my eye: 2 things: With a  13.8 bbu corn crop, there’s still 12.8 left to harvest.  Applying LY and AVG pace to this year’s production, the harvest is 1.1 bbu and 552 mbu behind.  Eerie similarity to the start of this year’s corn exports and 12/13

·       Slow news day but most markets are higher this morning.  ASIA: Higher--Nikkei, +0.09%; Shanghai, +0.28%; Hang Seng, +0.22%.  EUROPE: Mostly firm —DAX, +0.04%; FTSE, -0.21%; CAC, +0.20%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firm-- DOW, -77; S&P, +9.25; NAS, +27.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.73@ $57.91; Gold:  -$2.80 @ $1,529; $ Index: +.034 @ 98.633

·       T-storm Weather®: mildness generally persists across the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days, despite some cooler periods through Thursday.  Rains accompany mildness across the northwest two-thirds of the region this weekend & more-so next week, keeping northern corn, soybeans, & wheat very wet.  Brazil & Paraguay slowly turn wetter over the next 10 days as thunderstorms gradually become more numerous for corn & soybean planting, & some rain returns to Argentina wheat next week

• CZ, dn $.0275 @ $3.7050; CH, dn $.0250 @ $3.8175.  The funds bought 3 K on Monday      
• SX, up $.0075 @ $8.9325; SF, up $.0125 @ $9.0725.  Funds: bought 7 K SB, 5 SBM, sold 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.76, -4; LY, $1.40
• WZ, dn $.0475 @ $4.7825; WH, dn $.05 @ $4.850.  Fund selling to begin the week--2 K    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 57% Good/Excellent versus 55% last week but still well below 69% last year.  Corn mature is 29% vs. 69% last year and the 5-year avg. of 57%.  Corn harvested is 7% v. 15% last year and the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       ATI Research: Updated U.S. corn ending stocks estimate for 2019/20 is 2.281 bbu vs. September USDA est. of 2.190

• T-storm Weather®: multiple rounds of rain occur across the northwest half of the central U.S. from Fri.-Sat. forward, producing 1.00”-3.00” within northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt & 1.00”-2.00” in the Dakotas over Sep. 28-Oct. 4
• U.S. sorghum 65% Good/Excellent, unch v. last week but up v. 55% last year.  Harvest: 26% v. 29% in 2018 & 31% avg.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 54% Good/Excellent, unchanged versus last week but below 68% in 2018.  Dropping leaves is 34% vs. 68% last year and the 5-year avg of 59%

·       ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean ending stocks est. for 2019/20 is 0.616 bbu vs. September USDA est. of 0.640

• U.S. spring wheat harvest up 11 points to 87%, but still well below 99% in 2018 and the 5=year avg. of 97%.  Winter wheat planted: 22% v. 26% last year & 5-year avg. of 24%
• T-storm Weather®: dry & increasingly warm weather dominate Argentina wheat next 5-7 days to intensify drought

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX19, -$0.73 @ $57.91; EBX, -$0.90 @ $63.87; EBX-QCLX, -.19; RBX, -.0251; NGX, +.041; HOX, -.0237

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0135 on Monday to $1.39875; basis values were mostly lower:  NYC, -$.0025 @ $.12125; Gulf, -$.00875 @ $.10625; Dallas, +$.00125 @ $.13625; Tampa, -$.00375 @ $.24625; LA, -$.03875 @ $.25625

·       Ethanol RINs eased further with 2018’s, -0.75 @ 10 ½ -11; 2019’s, -0.50 @ 20-20 ½                                                          &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;             

·   &nb​sp;   The October RBOB/October ethanol spread gave up $.0076 on Monday and ended the day at $.3088/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              ​                         ​

• Choice boxed beef declined 52-cents on Monday to $216.45 and is $4.17 lower compared to a week ago  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price firmed $1.85 last week to $101.92/cwt but is $8.69 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.56 on Mon. to $69.53 and is up $1.93 versus last week 

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.50/cwt vs. last week’s $44.58, last month’s $39.27 & last year’s $34.75                        <​wbr>   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather