HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CU, +$.01; SQ, +$.03; WU, -$.0225; KWU, -$.0225     
• What caught my eye:  What will the July WASDE show as far as planted corn acres . . .  ERS took the June numbers down 3 million acres to 89.9; NASS on Friday, went up 2.6 million versus the March intentions . . . continued volatility seems certain
• Trade Truce, no further tariffs—Shanghai moves up.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +2.13%; Shanghai, +2.22%; Hang Seng, Closed.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.31%; FTSE, +1.13%; CAC, +0.84%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher--DOW, +282 S&P, +33.75; NAS, +134.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$1.47 @ $59.94; Gold:  -$20.50 @ $1,393; $ Index: +.41 @ 96.54
• T-storm ® Weather: U.S. temperatures remain sharply warmer than normal across a wide area through Tue.  Changes unfold from northwest to southeast over Wed.-Sun. as a series of cool fronts pass & drop readings to below-normal levels in the Plains & near– to slightly below-normal levels elsewhere.  Scattered thunderstorms focus on the Dakotas, MN, WI, & parts of IL & IN over the next few days.  Occasional thunderstorms affect a wide area from midweek forward, including HRW & SRW wheat areas
• CU, up $.01 @ $4.2575; CZ, up $.0025 @ $4.3175.  Heavy fund selling of 40 K in response to a bearish acreage report                      
• SQ, up $.03 @ $9.0750; SU, up $.03 @ $9.14.  Funds: Bot 6 K SB, 1 K SBM; 5 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.00, -5; LY, $1.86
• WU, dn $.0225 @ $5.25; WZ, dn $.0175 @ $5.3575.  The funds sold 15 K following Friday’s report                 

CORN/SORGHUM

• Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent condition at 56-58% compared to 56% last week and 77% last year

·       T-storm ® Weather: The central U.S. remains likely to be divided by heat to the southwest & coolness to the northeast over July 8-14, leaving temps near-normal; above-normal rain north (1.50”-3.50”), near-normal south (1.00”-2.00”)

·       ATI Research: USDA Grain Stocks report; March-May corn feed/residual use was ~130 mbu more than trade expected

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 56.7 mbu needed; 24.3 last week.  Milo—2.3 needed; 4.4 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg soybean Good/Excellent at 54-56% vs. 54% last week & 73% last year

·       T-storm ® Weather: The central U.S. remains likely to be divided by heat to the southwest & coolness to the northeast over July 8-14, leaving temps near-normal; above-normal rain north (1.50”-3.50”), near-normal south (1.00”-2.00”)

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 36.5 mbu needed; 25.1 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 17.4 mbu needed; 14.9 last week

·       T-storm ® Weather: Temps average slightly cooler than normal near-term across wheat in Russia with occasional rain

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ19, +$1.47 @ $59.94; EBQ, +$1.62 @ $66.36; EBQ-QCLQ, +.16;RBQ, +.0307; NGQ, +.001; HOQ, +.0378

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.05525 on Friday to $1.51975; basis values were mostly firm: New York, +$.00525 @ $.12015; Gulf, -$.00475 @ $.10525; Dallas, +$.00525 @ $.09025; Tampa, +$.00525 @ $.21025; LA, +$.02025 @ $.24525  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -0.50 @ 23 -24; 2019’s, -0.50 @ 26 ¼ -27 ¼                                   ​                        &​nbsp;                  

·       The August RBOB/July ethanol spread widened $.0519 on Friday to $.4375/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                       

• Choice boxed beef increased 63-cents on Friday to $219.66 but is still 16-cents lower versus last the previous week   
• Cash cattle business transacted in Texas on Friday was steady with the previous week's prices at $109

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 63-cents on Fri. to $72.26 and is down $2.63 versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.21 on Fri. to $76.05.  July futures were $1.725 lower and are $3.95 below the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CU, +$.01; SQ, +$.03; WU, -$.0225; KWU, -$.0225     
• What caught my eye:  What will the July WASDE show as far as planted corn acres . . .  ERS took the June numbers down 3 million acres to 89.9; NASS on Friday, went up 2.6 million versus the March intentions . . . continued volatility seems certain
• Trade Truce, no further tariffs—Shanghai moves up.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +2.13%; Shanghai, +2.22%; Hang Seng, Closed.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.31%; FTSE, +1.13%; CAC, +0.84%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher--DOW, +282 S&P, +33.75; NAS, +134.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$1.47 @ $59.94; Gold:  -$20.50 @ $1,393; $ Index: +.41 @ 96.54
• T-storm ® Weather: U.S. temperatures remain sharply warmer than normal across a wide area through Tue.  Changes unfold from northwest to southeast over Wed.-Sun. as a series of cool fronts pass & drop readings to below-normal levels in the Plains & near– to slightly below-normal levels elsewhere.  Scattered thunderstorms focus on the Dakotas, MN, WI, & parts of IL & IN over the next few days.  Occasional thunderstorms affect a wide area from midweek forward, including HRW & SRW wheat areas
• CU, up $.01 @ $4.2575; CZ, up $.0025 @ $4.3175.  Heavy fund selling of 40 K in response to a bearish acreage report                      
• SQ, up $.03 @ $9.0750; SU, up $.03 @ $9.14.  Funds: Bot 6 K SB, 1 K SBM; 5 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.00, -5; LY, $1.86
• WU, dn $.0225 @ $5.25; WZ, dn $.0175 @ $5.3575.  The funds sold 15 K following Friday’s report                 

CORN/SORGHUM

• Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent condition at 56-58% compared to 56% last week and 77% last year

·       T-storm ® Weather: The central U.S. remains likely to be divided by heat to the southwest & coolness to the northeast over July 8-14, leaving temps near-normal; above-normal rain north (1.50”-3.50”), near-normal south (1.00”-2.00”)

·       ATI Research: USDA Grain Stocks report; March-May corn feed/residual use was ~130 mbu more than trade expected

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 56.7 mbu needed; 24.3 last week.  Milo—2.3 needed; 4.4 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg soybean Good/Excellent at 54-56% vs. 54% last week & 73% last year

·       T-storm ® Weather: The central U.S. remains likely to be divided by heat to the southwest & coolness to the northeast over July 8-14, leaving temps near-normal; above-normal rain north (1.50”-3.50”), near-normal south (1.00”-2.00”)

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 36.5 mbu needed; 25.1 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 17.4 mbu needed; 14.9 last week

·       T-storm ® Weather: Temps average slightly cooler than normal near-term across wheat in Russia with occasional rain

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ19, +$1.47 @ $59.94; EBQ, +$1.62 @ $66.36; EBQ-QCLQ, +.16;RBQ, +.0307; NGQ, +.001; HOQ, +.0378

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.05525 on Friday to $1.51975; basis values were mostly firm: New York, +$.00525 @ $.12015; Gulf, -$.00475 @ $.10525; Dallas, +$.00525 @ $.09025; Tampa, +$.00525 @ $.21025; LA, +$.02025 @ $.24525  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -0.50 @ 23 -24; 2019’s, -0.50 @ 26 ¼ -27 ¼                             ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;

·       The August RBOB/July ethanol spread widened $.0519 on Friday to $.4375/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 ​      

• Choice boxed beef increased 63-cents on Friday to $219.66 but is still 16-cents lower versus last the previous week   
• Cash cattle business transacted in Texas on Friday was steady with the previous week's prices at $109

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 63-cents on Fri. to $72.26 and is down $2.63 versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.21 on Fri. to $76.05.  July futures were $1.725 lower and are $3.95 below the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather